La LigaEstadio MendizorrotzaSunday, May 3, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 12h 52m
Alaves
vs
Athletic Club
AI Pick: Draw
Confidence: 70%
1X2: Draw (โก70%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: Yes
Alaves vs Athletic Club Prediction
This La Liga clash between Alaves and Athletic Club is set to be a classic Basque derby: tight, tactical, and likely low-scoring. Alaves' home advantage is a significant factor, countering Athletic Club's superior league position but abysmal away record. A draw, particularly a 1-1 scoreline, is the most probable outcome.
MATCH RESULT
Draw
Predicted: 1-1
โก70%
Alaves has a solid home record (5W, 6D, 4L) and has been difficult to beat at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Athletic Club, while higher in the league table, struggles significantly on the road (3W, 3D, 9L). Both teams exhibit low-scoring tendencies, with a high percentage of their matches ending with Under 2.5 goals. This is a Basque derby, which often leads to tight, competitive, and sometimes cautious encounters. Given Alaves' home advantage neutralizing Athletic's slight overall quality edge, a draw, specifically a 1-1 scoreline, appears to be the most probable outcome.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.2
60%
Both teams exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with Alaves' home games averaging 2.47 goals and Athletic's away games averaging 2.6 goals. The combined average suggests a total around 2.2 goals. Despite the low total, a 1-1 draw is predicted, indicating both teams will likely score, hence BTTS Yes.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Yes
55%
Both teams exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with Alaves' home games averaging 2.47 goals and Athletic's away games averaging 2.6 goals. The combined average suggests a total around 2.2 goals. Despite the low total, a 1-1 draw is predicted, indicating both teams will likely score, hence BTTS Yes.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While Under 2.5 is strongly favored, a 1-1 scoreline means Over 1.5 goals will be achieved. Both teams' average goals per game suggest at least two goals are likely in total.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
With both teams showing a very strong tendency for Under 2.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals is an even safer prediction, indicating a highly unlikely high-scoring affair.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Both teams have shown capability to score and concede in the first half. Athletic Club, in particular, scores 28.13% of their goals between minutes 31-45. It's common for at least one goal to be scored before halftime.
First Team to Score
Home
Alaves has a slight edge at home and will be motivated to start strong in a derby. While Athletic scores later in halves, Alaves' home advantage might give them the initial impetus.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
A 1-1 prediction allows for goals in both halves. While not guaranteed in a low-scoring game, it's a plausible outcome if the goals are spread out.
Most Likely Score
1-1
Based on the analysis of both teams' low-scoring nature, defensive solidity, and the likelihood of a tight derby, a 1-1 draw is the most probable exact score, though exact scores are always high-risk.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Given the low-scoring nature of both teams and the expected caution in a derby, it's unlikely both teams will find the net in the first 45 minutes.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Consistent with the low goal-scoring trends for both teams, the expected goals (xG) for the match are likely to be below 2.5, reflecting fewer high-quality chances.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Alaves' strong home record (5W, 6D, 4L) against Athletic Club's poor away form (3W, 3D, 9L) makes a home win or draw a very safe bet.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Alaves' home advantage and the potential for a draw, backing Alaves with the draw no bet option provides good security, returning the stake if the match ends level.
HT/FT
Draw/Draw
A tight, low-scoring derby is expected. Both teams tend to be cautious, especially in the first half. A goalless or low-scoring first half leading to a draw at full-time aligns with the overall prediction.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
La Liga matches typically see a decent number of corners, and a competitive derby often leads to end-to-end play and defensive clearances, pushing the corner count higher.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
This is a Basque derby, known for its intensity and rivalry. La Liga is also a physically demanding league. Both teams accumulate yellow cards, and the competitive nature of this match makes over 3.5 cards highly probable.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Even in low-scoring games, teams aim for goal. A combined total of over 8.5 shots on target is a reasonable expectation for two competitive La Liga sides.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Both teams will be looking for opportunities, and even if many shots are blocked or off-target, a combined total of over 22.5 shots is expected in a competitive league match.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
La Liga matches are typically physical, and a Basque derby will add an extra layer of intensity and competitiveness, leading to a higher number of fouls.
Possession Winner
Away
Athletic Club generally prefers to control possession and dictate play, even when playing away. Alaves, especially at home, might be more direct.
Alaves Clean Sheet
No
Alaves has only kept 2 clean sheets at home (13%), and Athletic Club has only kept 2 clean sheets away (13%). Both teams concede regularly, making clean sheets for either side unlikely.
Athletic Club Clean Sheet
No
Alaves has only kept 2 clean sheets at home (13%), and Athletic Club has only kept 2 clean sheets away (13%). Both teams concede regularly, making clean sheets for either side unlikely.
Alaves vs Athletic Club โ Key Stats
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Home Ground
4:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 3
Matchday kickoff
La Liga
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Alaves vs Athletic Club
โ Match Result: Draw
The model identifies a draw as a strong possibility given Alaves' home resilience and Athletic Club's away struggles, combined with the derby factor. If market odds for a draw are around 3.10, there's a positive edge.
โ Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Alaves (28/31 matches) and Athletic Club (28/30 matches) have a very high propensity for Under 2.5 goals. This is a statistically robust trend, making it a high-confidence value bet if the odds are favorable.
โ Both Teams To Score: Yes
While a low-scoring game is expected, a 1-1 draw is the predicted score. Alaves scores in 80% of home games, and Athletic scores in 53.3% of away games. This suggests both teams are likely to find the net at least once.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Sharp money would likely target the Under 2.5 goals market due to the overwhelming statistical evidence. A draw or 1X (Alaves win or draw) could also attract sharp money given the home/away form disparity. Line movement: Without initial odds, it's hard to predict movement. However, if Athletic Club opens as clear favorites, we might see money coming in on Alaves +0.5 or the Draw, causing the lines to tighten.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Alaves vs Athletic Club
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 25%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธDerby unpredictability: Derbies can sometimes produce unexpected results or higher-scoring games due to heightened emotions.
- โ ๏ธAthletic Club's quality: Despite poor away form, Athletic Club is a higher-ranked team and can produce moments of individual brilliance.
- โ ๏ธLow scoring variance: In low-scoring games, a single moment or mistake can heavily swing the outcome, making exact score predictions difficult.
Model Confidence
โก75%
Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a detailed statistical analysis of form, goals, and home/away performance.
Limitations
- โขNo specific head-to-head records were provided, which could offer historical context for this derby.
- โขNo injury or suspension information was available, which could significantly impact team strength.
- โขActual market odds were not provided, requiring estimation for value bet calculations.
- โขNo recent news or tactical insights were available beyond statistical data.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Alaves vs Athletic Club โ FAQ
Based on our analysis, a 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline for this Basque derby.