EredivisieEredivisieKras Stadion

Thursday, May 21, 2026, 4:45 PM UTC

Kickoff in 20h 53m

Ajax

Ajax

-114

vs

Groningen

Groningen

+278

Draw +296ยทvia Velobet

37%
35%
28%
AjaxDrawGroningen

AI Pick: Ajax Win

Confidence: 37%

1X2: Ajax Win (37%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

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Ajax vs Groningen Prediction

Ajax is favored to win this Eredivisie clash against Groningen, primarily due to their superior league position, stronger overall statistics, and historical home dominance. However, Groningen's recent form and a surprising win in their last head-to-head make this match less straightforward than it might appear on paper.

AI-powered prediction

Ajax host Groningen at Kras Stadion on Thursday, part of the 2025 Eredivisie season. Both sides' recent form, head-to-head record, league position, and current injury status are factored into the prediction below.

How they arrived here

Ajax arrive having taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last five matches. They are currently 5th, within Conference League qualification.

Groningen come in having arrived on the back of two consecutive wins, taking 2 from their last five. They are currently 9th, within Conference League qualification.

MATCH RESULT

Ajax Win

Predicted: 2-1

37%

Ajax, currently 5th in the Eredivisie, faces 9th-placed Groningen at home. Despite a recent 3-1 loss to Groningen in March 2026, Ajax holds a dominant head-to-head record (7 wins in last 10). Their home form is solid with 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Groningen's away form is weaker, with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, conceding 1.6 goals per game. The API-Sports comparison heavily favors Ajax (61% total advantage, 67% defensive advantage), and their advice is 'Win or draw' for Ajax, indicating a strong likelihood of at least avoiding defeat. Given Ajax's overall quality, home advantage, and historical dominance, a home win is the most probable outcome.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.9

60%

The head-to-head record shows a strong tendency for goals, with 8 out of the last 10 matches featuring 3 or more goals. Ajax averages 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.9 at home, while Groningen averages 1.4 goals per game overall and 1.3 away. Both teams have shown they can score, and Ajax's defense, while better than Groningen's, has conceded in 7 of the last 10 H2H encounters. Therefore, 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' are well-supported.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

The head-to-head record shows a strong tendency for goals, with 8 out of the last 10 matches featuring 3 or more goals. Ajax averages 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.9 at home, while Groningen averages 1.4 goals per game overall and 1.3 away. Both teams have shown they can score, and Ajax's defense, while better than Groningen's, has conceded in 7 of the last 10 H2H encounters. Therefore, 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' are well-supported.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

88%

With a prediction of 'Over 2.5 Goals' and both teams expected to score, 'Over 1.5 Goals' is a very high-confidence pick.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

60%

While Over 2.5 is predicted, the team statistics for individual matches show relatively low percentages for Over 3.5. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Under 3.5 goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

80%

Ajax scores 58% of their goals in the first half, and Groningen scores 45% of theirs in the first half. It's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

68%

Ajax has a stronger attack and home advantage, making them more likely to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

70%

Given the expectation of multiple goals and both teams scoring, it's highly probable that goals will be distributed across both halves of the match.

Most Likely Score

2-1

25%

Based on Ajax's average home goals (1.9) and Groningen's average away goals conceded (1.6), combined with the expectation of both teams scoring, a 2-1 scoreline for Ajax is a plausible outcome.

BTTS 1st Half

No

60%

While goals are expected, both teams scoring in the first half is a less frequent occurrence. Ajax's home defense is relatively solid in the first half.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

65%

Based on the expectation of 'Over 2.5 Goals' and both teams scoring, the underlying xG for the match should also be above 2.5.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

85%

Ajax is the stronger team at home, and the API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Ajax or draw'. This pick offers good security given Ajax's overall strength and home advantage.

Draw No Bet

Home

70%

Ajax is favored to win, and in the event of a draw, the stake would be returned. This is a safer alternative to a straight win bet for Ajax.

HT/FT

Home/Home

58%

Ajax tends to start strong at home and scores a significant portion of their goals in the first half. If they establish an early lead, they are likely to maintain it until full-time.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

65%

Eredivisie matches typically see a good number of corners, and with both teams likely to attack, especially Ajax at home, exceeding 9.5 corners is a reasonable expectation.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

60%

Both teams average around 1.7 yellow cards per game. A competitive match, especially with Groningen looking to upset Ajax, could lead to a higher card count. Over 3.5 cards is a fair prediction.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

65%

Ajax is an attacking team at home, and Groningen will also look for opportunities. Given the expected goal count, both teams should contribute to a total of over 8.5 shots on target.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

Ajax is an attacking side, and Groningen will also look to create chances. A combined total of over 22.5 shots is reasonable for an Eredivisie fixture.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

Without specific data, a competitive Eredivisie match typically involves a fair number of fouls, making over 22.5 a standard expectation.

Possession Winner

Home

75%

Ajax is known for its possession-based style of play, especially when playing at home against mid-table teams like Groningen.

Ajax Clean Sheet

No

70%

Given the 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Groningen has scored in 7 of the last 10 H2H matches against Ajax.

Groningen Clean Sheet

No

70%

Given the 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Groningen has scored in 7 of the last 10 H2H matches against Ajax.

Ajax vs Groningen โ€” Key Stats

AjaxStatGroningen
5th โœ…League Position9th
56 โœ…Points48
34 Games Played34
14 Wins14
14 Drawsโœ… 6
62 โœ…Goals Scored49
41 โœ…Goals Conceded45
1.8 โœ…Goals Per Game1.4
10 Clean Sheets10
WWDLD โœ…Recent FormDLLWW

These sides last met on 7 March 2026, when Groningen won 3-1 at home in a comfortable win. Over the last 10 meetings, Ajax hold a 7-2 edge, with 1 draw in between.

Ajax vs Groningen โ€” Recent Meetings

Mar 7, 2026Eredivisie

Groningen 3-1 Ajax

โœ… Yes

4 (Over)

Dec 2, 2025Eredivisie

Ajax 2-0 Groningen

โŒ No

2 (Under)

May 14, 2025Eredivisie

Groningen 2-2 Ajax

โœ… Yes

4 (Over)

Oct 6, 2024Eredivisie

Ajax 3-1 Groningen

โœ… Yes

4 (Over)

May 16, 2023Eredivisie

Groningen 2-3 Ajax

โœ… Yes

5 (Over)

BTTS: 4/5 (80%) ยท Over 2.5: 4/5 (80%)

๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Kras Stadion

Home Ground

โฐ

4:45 PM UTC

Thursday, May 21

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Eredivisie

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Ajax vs Groningen

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

N/A (No odds provided) Line movement: N/A (No odds provided)

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Ajax vs Groningen

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Ajax Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 13%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธAjax's recent inconsistent form (DLDWW).
  • โš ๏ธGroningen's recent 3-1 victory over Ajax in their last encounter.
  • โš ๏ธThe absence of current odds, which could indicate market uncertainty or a lack of strong consensus.

Data Quality Score

โšก68%

Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics, standings, and head-to-head data were available.

Limitations

  • โ€ขAbsence of real-time odds data for value betting.
  • โ€ขLack of specific injury reports for either team.
  • โ€ขNo detailed xG or advanced metrics for a deeper statistical dive.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Ajax vs Groningen โ€” FAQ

Ajax is most likely to win this match, given their stronger league position, home advantage, and historical head-to-head dominance.

Our soccer predictions weigh form, head-to-head record, home/away splits, league position, and current injury status across 16 leagues. Confidence is calibrated honestly โ€” a tight matchup stays 52-48 in our display rather than inflated. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI Soccer Predictions hub.