Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Vegas Golden Knights Win

Predicted: 5-3

56%

The Vegas Golden Knights hold a 1-0 series lead over the Anaheim Ducks in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, having won Game 1 by a score of 3-1. This upcoming game on May 12, 2026, is Game 5 of the series and will be played at T-Mobile Arena, giving Vegas home-ice advantage. The Golden Knights have a strong playoff pedigree, reaching the second round six times in nine seasons with a 4-1 record in those series. A significant boost for Vegas is the return of William Karlsson, a key offensive player, who missed nearly six months with a lower-body injury but returned for Game 1. While the Ducks had a strong regular season and an impressive first-round performance against the Edmonton Oilers, averaging 5.00 goals per game, they are facing defensive challenges. Anaheim's captain, Radko Gudas, missed Game 1 due to an undisclosed injury and his status for Game 5 is uncertain, which significantly weakens their defensive core. Additionally, goaltender Petr Mrazek is out for the remainder of the season due to hip surgery. Although Anaheim won all three regular-season matchups against Vegas (all 4-3 scores, with Vegas earning two points from overtime losses), the playoff intensity, Vegas's home advantage, the return of Karlsson, and Anaheim's key defensive injuries tilt the prediction in favor of the Golden Knights for this pivotal Game 5.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5)

56%

Given Vegas's home-ice advantage, their 1-0 series lead, the return of William Karlsson, and the significant defensive injuries impacting the Anaheim Ducks (notably captain Radko Gudas and starting goaltender Petr Mrazek), the Golden Knights are well-positioned to win by more than one goal. While regular season matchups were close, playoff games, especially pivotal ones like Game 5, can see more decisive outcomes when one team has a clear advantage in roster health and home support. Vegas's Game 1 victory by a 3-1 margin already demonstrated their ability to cover a -1.5 spread against the Ducks in this series.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 6.5

58%

The Anaheim Ducks demonstrated significant offensive firepower in their first-round series, averaging 5.00 goals per game and boasting a 50.0% power-play percentage. Although Game 1 of this series was a lower-scoring 3-1 affair, the regular season matchups between these two teams consistently saw 7 goals scored (4-3 in all three games). With Anaheim's offensive capabilities and Vegas's strengthened lineup due to Karlsson's return, coupled with Anaheim's defensive vulnerabilities from injuries to Gudas and Mrazek, a higher-scoring game is anticipated. The predicted score of 5-3 for Vegas results in 8 total goals, supporting the 'over 6.5' pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Likely on Vegas given their playoff experience and current series lead, but the historical head-to-head could attract some sharp money on Anaheim's spread if the line is too wide. The 'over' on total goals might also be a sharp play considering Anaheim's offensive form and Vegas's scoring ability. Line movement: Expect the line to favor Vegas, potentially moving further in their direction if there are confirmed negative updates on Anaheim's injuries or if Vegas performs strongly in earlier games of the series. The total might see movement towards the over if previous games in the series are high-scoring.