Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Vegas Golden Knights Win

Predicted: 4-3

58%

The Vegas Golden Knights, as the higher seed and hosts, are favored in this second-round playoff matchup despite being swept 3-0 by the Anaheim Ducks in the regular season, with all three games decided by a 4-3 score. Vegas finished the regular season with a stronger record of 39-26-17 (95 points) compared to Anaheim's 43-33-6 (92 points). Both teams are coming off 4-2 first-round series victories, with Vegas eliminating Utah and Anaheim besting Edmonton. Vegas holds a significant advantage in goaltending with Carter Hart returning from injury and expected to start, while Anaheim's Lukas Dostal posted a concerning 3.87 GAA and .874 SV% in the first round. Vegas also has a slight edge in recent form, with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 regular season games compared to Anaheim's 6-3-1. Although Anaheim's regular season sweep is notable, playoff intensity, home ice, and a clear goaltending mismatch swing the favor towards the Golden Knights.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (-1.5)

58%

While the regular season head-to-head saw close 4-3 games, the Golden Knights' overall strength, home-ice advantage, and the Ducks' struggling goaltending in the playoffs suggest potential for a multi-goal victory. Vegas's playoff offense has been strong (4.3 goals per game), and with Hart in net, they could limit Anaheim's scoring more effectively than in the regular season. The odds of +140 to +160 for Vegas -1.5 present good value if they can secure a two-goal lead.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 6

58%

All three regular season matchups between these teams ended with 7 goals, hitting the over on a 6-goal total. Both teams demonstrated strong offensive output in their respective first-round series, with Vegas averaging 4.3 goals and Anaheim 3.8 goals per game. Additionally, Anaheim's starting goalie, Lukas Dostal, recorded a high 3.87 GAA and low .874 SV% in the first round, indicating a potential for more goals against. These factors strongly suggest the total will exceed 6 goals in this playoff game.

⚠️ Money Line: Vegas Golden Knights

The implied probability of Vegas winning at odds of 1.606 (-165 American) is 62.26%. Our model projects a slightly higher probability of 64% due to home ice, a better overall season record, and a significant goaltending advantage. This creates a small but actionable edge.

✅ Puck Line: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5

With Anaheim's starting goalie Lukas Dostal showing a high GAA and low save percentage in the first round (3.87 GAA, .874 SV%), and Vegas boasting a potent offense that averaged 4.3 goals per game in their first round, there's a good chance Vegas could win by more than one goal. The odds of 2.40 (+140 American) offer solid value compared to our model's higher probability for this outcome.

✅ Total Goals (incl. OT): Over 6.0

The regular season series saw all three games hit 7 goals, and both teams showed high-scoring performances in their first-round playoff series. With Anaheim's goaltending struggles, the offensive potential far outweighs the defensive solidity. The odds of 1.909 (-110 American) for Over 6.0 goals offer substantial value given the strong statistical trends and recent performances.

💰 Sharp Money

There is likely sharp money on the Over, given the historical head-to-head results and recent offensive trends of both teams in the playoffs. The spread on Anaheim +1.5 at -148 also suggests sharps might be taking the underdog to keep it close. Line movement: Initial lines established Vegas as a clear favorite, and while there might be some fluctuation, the underlying factors (Vegas's overall strength vs. Anaheim's H2H dominance) are likely keeping the lines relatively stable, reflecting a cautious approach by bookmakers.