Wes Schultz vs Benjamin Johnston Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Benjamin Johnston Win

Predicted: Benjamin Johnston by TKO, Round 2

⚡68%

Benjamin Johnston enters his UFC debut on home soil in Perth, Australia, with significant momentum, boasting a four-fight winning streak and a background as a former Muay Thai world champion. His striking prowess and the energy of the home crowd will be considerable advantages. Wes Schultz, while a decorated wrestler with a finish-heavy style, is coming off a disappointing first-round TKO loss in his UFC debut just a few months prior. This puts immense pressure on Schultz, and Johnston's ability to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking could exploit Schultz's recent vulnerability. While Schultz's grappling is a threat, Johnston's experience in various combat sports suggests a well-rounded defense. I anticipate Johnston capitalizing on the opportunity with a strong performance, likely finishing the fight with strikes.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Benjamin Johnston (Moneyline) (0)

70%

Benjamin Johnston is making his UFC debut in his home country of Australia, carrying a four-fight winning streak and the significant advantage of a supportive crowd. His striking background as a Muay Thai world champion is formidable. Wes Schultz, while a strong grappler, suffered a decisive first-round TKO loss in his UFC debut, raising questions about his ability to handle the pressure and striking at this level. Johnston's momentum and the emotional boost of a home debut make him the favored pick.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 2.5

60%

Both fighters have a history of finishes. Wes Schultz has 7 finishes in his 8 wins (2 KO, 5 submission), and his last fight was a first-round TKO loss. Benjamin Johnston has secured finishes in all of his recent wins, including multiple submissions. Given Schultz's recent quick loss and Johnston's powerful striking and submission game, there's a strong likelihood this fight does not go the distance. Johnston will be looking to make a statement in his debut, and Schultz will be desperate to avoid another early finish, potentially leading to an aggressive start from both sides.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money might be cautious given Johnston's lack of UFC experience and age, potentially looking for value on Schultz if the odds become too skewed. However, Schultz's 0% Takedown Defense in his UFC debut is a red flag that sharps would scrutinize heavily. The lack of comprehensive UFC data for Johnston makes it challenging for sharps to establish a precise line. Line movement: Expect the betting line to initially move in favor of Benjamin Johnston, driven by public support for the home fighter and his winning streak. Any significant movement towards Schultz would indicate sharp action identifying a potential grappling advantage or a perceived overvaluation of Johnston.