Vince Morales vs Colby Thicknesse Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Colby Thicknesse Win

Predicted: Colby Thicknesse by Unanimous Decision

⚡75%

Colby Thicknesse enters this bout with recent momentum, having secured a unanimous decision victory in his last UFC outing and fighting in his home country of Australia. He possesses a strong wrestling foundation and a 'slick' submission game, which could allow him to control the pace of the fight. Vince Morales, while more experienced overall, is on a three-fight losing streak in the UFC, all by unanimous decision. Although Morales has shown resilience and skill in regional promotions, the UFC level has proven challenging for him recently. Thicknesse's training with UFC champion Alexander Volkanovski and a full camp further bolster his chances. Morales' higher significant strikes absorbed per minute also suggests he could be vulnerable to Thicknesse's pressure.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Colby Thicknesse -2.5 Rounds (-2.5)

70%

Given Colby Thicknesse's strong grappling and control-oriented style, combined with Vince Morales' recent tendency to lose by decision, Thicknesse is likely to win at least two out of three rounds. His ability to dictate the fight's location and secure takedowns should allow him to accumulate control time and significant strikes, leading to a clear decision victory.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 2.5

85%

Both fighters have a history of their fights going the distance. Colby Thicknesse's last two UFC fights were decisions, and Vince Morales' last three UFC losses were all by unanimous decision. While both possess finishing capabilities, their recent UFC performances suggest a grind-it-out affair is more probable, making the 'over 2.5 rounds' a highly confident pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money would likely be on Colby Thicknesse, especially considering the local support and his strong grappling base which often translates to control and decision wins. However, if Morales' regional success and desperation for a win are undervalued, there could be some sharp action on him as an underdog. Line movement: Without initial odds, it's difficult to predict specific line movement. However, if Thicknesse opens as a slight favorite, his line might shorten as fight day approaches due to public and sharp money. If Morales opens as a significant underdog, there might be some movement if bettors believe his experience and power are being underestimated.