Gauge Young vs Thiago Moises Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Thiago Moises Win

Predicted: Thiago Moises by Unanimous Decision

⚡75%

This lightweight bout pits the experienced grappler Thiago Moises against the aggressive striker Gauge Young. Moises boasts a significant experience advantage in the UFC (8-7 record) and is a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with dangerous submission skills. While he suffered a recent first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon in May 2025, raising questions about his chin, his overall body of work against higher-level competition is superior. Young, with a 1-2 UFC record, is known for his high-volume, aggressive striking and durability. However, Moises' ability to control the fight on the ground, secure takedowns (1.31 TD Avg. per 15 min), and threaten with submissions (1.1 Sub. Avg. per 15 min) provides a clear path to victory. Young's aggression could play into Moises' hands if he can capitalize on takedown opportunities. Given both fighters' durability and Moises' tendency to go to decision, a points victory for Moises is the most probable outcome.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Thiago Moises (-150)

70%

Thiago Moises is currently favored at -150, which reflects his superior experience and grappling prowess in the UFC. Despite his recent knockout loss, Moises has a proven track record against tougher competition. His ability to dictate where the fight takes place, either by engaging in striking exchanges or pursuing takedowns, gives him a distinct advantage over the less experienced Young. While Young's aggressive style could pose problems, Moises' defensive grappling and submission threats make him the safer pick at these odds.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 2.5

80%

Both Thiago Moises and Gauge Young have demonstrated durability in their careers, with many of their fights going the distance. Moises, in particular, has a history of grinding out decisions, and his grappling-heavy approach often leads to longer fights. Young's high striking volume and willingness to absorb strikes also suggest he can withstand damage. While Moises' recent KO loss is a factor, Young is not primarily known for one-punch knockout power in the UFC. The FanDuel odds also indicate that a 'Points' victory is a highly likely outcome, further supporting the 'over 2.5 rounds' pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Thiago Moises is currently listed at -150, indicating that sharp money and oddsmakers view him as the more likely winner in this matchup. Line movement: No significant line movement information was explicitly found, but the current odds establish Moises as the favorite.