Gadzhi Rabadanov vs Aleksandr Chizov Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Gadzhi Rabadanov Win

Predicted: Gadzhi Rabadanov by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

⚡75%

Gadzhi Rabadanov, the 2024 PFL Lightweight Champion and currently ranked #2 in the PFL lightweight division, brings a superior level of experience and a more extensive resume against top-tier competition. Training with Team Nurmagomedov, Rabadanov possesses a well-rounded skill set, combining powerful striking with a strong combat sambo and grappling base. His recent record, despite a decision loss in the 2025 PFL Lightweight Tournament Final, includes impressive knockout victories over high-caliber opponents like Kevin Lee and Marc Diakiese in 2025, demonstrating his finishing ability and championship pedigree. Aleksandr Chizov, while a formidable and surging talent as the 2025 PFL Europe Lightweight Champion, has a less extensive track record against the elite of the PFL World Tournament. Chizov has shown excellent striking and knockout power, as evidenced by his recent PFL Europe tournament win via KO. However, Rabadanov's ability to control the pace, utilize his wrestling, and navigate tough exchanges over multiple rounds will likely be the deciding factor. Rabadanov's defensive capabilities and experience in championship-level fights should allow him to neutralize Chizov's early aggression and secure a decision victory, or potentially a late stoppage if Chizov fades.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Gadzhi Rabadanov -2.5 Rounds (-2.5)

70%

Given Gadzhi Rabadanov's championship experience and his ability to dominate rounds through striking and grappling, a hypothetical spread of -2.5 rounds (implying he wins at least 3 rounds in a 3-round fight, or finishes the fight) is a confident pick. Rabadanov has demonstrated the capacity to control fights and secure finishes against strong opponents, as seen in his 2024 PFL Championship run and quick KOs in 2025. While Chizov is dangerous, Rabadanov's overall game and ability to dictate the flow of the fight make him a strong candidate to win convincingly on the scorecards or secure a finish, covering a round-based spread.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 2.5

65%

Both Gadzhi Rabadanov and Aleksandr Chizov possess significant finishing capabilities. Rabadanov has a 38.5% KO rate and 19.2% submission rate in his wins, with recent quick KOs. Chizov boasts an even higher finishing rate, with 53.8% of his wins coming by KO/TKO and 30.8% by submission, often securing first-round finishes. While Rabadanov has gone to decision frequently, his recent performances show a renewed emphasis on early stoppages against high-level opponents. Chizov's aggressive style and power also increase the likelihood of an early conclusion. The combined finishing prowess of both fighters suggests that the fight is more likely to end before the final bell, making the 'under 2.5 rounds' a reasonable pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money might look for an 'under' play on the total rounds, given the finishing capabilities of both fighters. There could also be interest in Chizov as an underdog if his odds are attractive, considering his recent form and power. However, the safer sharp play would likely be on Rabadanov's moneyline or a prop bet for him to win by decision, given his history. Line movement: Without initial odds, predicting line movement is difficult. However, if Rabadanov opens as a significant favorite, there might be some movement towards Chizov if bettors believe his knockout power presents a real threat. Conversely, if Chizov's odds are too close, money might come in on Rabadanov, pushing his line further.