Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Allan Nascimento Win

Predicted: Allan Nascimento by Decision

⚡75%

Allan Nascimento enters this bout on an impressive four-fight winning streak in the UFC, showcasing his elite grappling and submission skills. He has demonstrated a 'world-class' ground game and strong control, making him a formidable opponent on the mat. While Mitch Raposo secured his first UFC victory in his last outing, his previous two UFC fights resulted in close split decision losses, suggesting he can be outpointed by higher-level competition. Nascimento's experience and ability to consistently find ways to win, even in 'uninspired' performances, gives him a significant edge. Raposo tends to struggle when forced to strike at range and may not have the volume or power to deter Nascimento's grappling-heavy approach.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Allan Nascimento Moneyline (-186)

75%

Allan Nascimento is the clear favorite due to his superior UFC record of 4-1 and his demonstrated submission prowess. His ability to control fights on the ground and secure finishes makes him a safer bet against Raposo, who has a 1-2 UFC record and has struggled with high-level grapplers.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 2.5

60%

While both fighters have seen decisions, Nascimento has a significant submission threat, with 14 of his 20 wins coming by submission, including a recent anaconda choke victory in November 2025. Raposo has also been submitted in the past, suggesting a potential finish for Nascimento before the final bell. Given Nascimento's 'world-class on the mat' skills, there's a good chance he finds a finish.

⚠️ Method of Victory: Allan Nascimento by Submission

Nascimento has 14 career submission wins and recently secured a Performance of the Night bonus for a submission. Raposo has shown susceptibility to submissions in his career, making this a strong value play if the odds are around 2.50.

⚠️ Fight to Go the Distance: No

Given Nascimento's finishing ability and Raposo's potential to be finished, there's a solid chance this fight ends inside the distance. Nascimento has 14 submission wins, and Raposo has been submitted previously.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money appears to be on Allan Nascimento, pushing his moneyline odds slightly higher, but the -186 still represents a strong position for the favorite. Line movement: Initial lines established Nascimento as a significant favorite, and while there might be minor fluctuations, he is consistently seen as the stronger fighter, with little movement suggesting a shift towards Raposo.