Oklahoma City Thunder / San Antonio Spurs winner vs New York Knicks Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

New York Knicks Win

Predicted: 115-110

+2.64 DraftKings

⚡67%

The San Antonio Spurs are poised to upset the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are significantly hampered by injuries, with key offensive contributors Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (soleus strain) officially ruled out for this decisive game. Their absence severely impacts the Thunder's scoring depth, especially considering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has reportedly struggled on offense at times in this series. The Spurs, conversely, boast a relatively clean injury report and have seen Victor Wembanyama deliver dominant performances, including 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in a crucial Game 4 victory. Despite Oklahoma City holding home-court advantage as the #1 seed with a 64-18 regular season record, the Spurs' momentum from a commanding 118-91 Game 6 win and their healthier roster provide a distinct edge in this winner-take-all contest.

SPREAD PREDICTION

San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (+2.5)

-4.5 (+1.85) DraftKings

68%

Given the significant injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell for the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs are in a strong position to at least keep this Game 7 close, if not win it outright. The Spurs demonstrated their capability by winning Game 6 with a large margin, and their relatively healthy roster, led by Victor Wembanyama, should be able to cover a +2.5 point spread against a depleted Thunder side.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 220.5

O/U 218.5 (+1.91) DraftKings

60%

Despite the Thunder's injuries, both teams are strong offensive units, with the Thunder averaging 119.0 PPG and the Spurs also high-scoring. While Game 7s can sometimes be lower scoring due to defensive intensity, the recent games in this series have shown a propensity for higher totals, and the overall offensive firepower, even with Thunder's absences, should push the score over 220.5.

✅ Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs

With Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell out for the Thunder, the Spurs' true probability of winning Game 7 is likely higher than the implied odds of +110 (2.10 decimal odds), creating a positive value edge.

✅ Player Points: Victor Wembanyama Over 28.5 Points

Wembanyama has shown dominant scoring ability in this series, including a 33-point performance. With the Thunder missing key defenders and his team needing him to step up in Game 7, he is likely to exceed this point total.

💰 Sharp Money

Indications are that sharp money is starting to come in on the San Antonio Spurs, particularly on the moneyline, recognizing the value created by the Thunder's injury woes. The line movement might shift to favor the Spurs slightly as game time approaches. Line movement: Initial lines likely opened with the Thunder as moderate favorites due to home court and being the #1 seed. However, with confirmed injury news for Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, expect the line to move in favor of the Spurs, potentially tightening the spread or even shifting them to slight favorites.