Dallas Mavericks vs Chicago Bulls Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Dallas Mavericks Win

Predicted: 115-109

60%

The Dallas Mavericks, despite their 25-55 record and elimination from playoff contention, are favored at home against a severely depleted Chicago Bulls squad. The Mavericks have a 63% implied win probability, according to Polymarket data. While both teams are 1-4 in their last five games, the Bulls are coming off an extensive period of struggle, including an 11-game losing streak in February 2026. Key injuries for the Bulls, including Zach Collins, Jalen Smith, Noa Essengue, and Anfernee Simons being out for the season or indefinitely, further weaken their lineup. The Mavericks are also dealing with significant injuries, including Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II out for the season. However, potential returns of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford could provide a boost, and the home-court advantage at American Airlines Center will be a factor.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-2.5)

65%

Given the Mavericks' 63% implied win probability at home against a struggling and injury-riddled Bulls team, a small spread favoring Dallas is appropriate. While both teams have poor recent form (1-4 in their last five games), the Bulls' extended struggles and numerous long-term absences make the Mavericks a more reliable pick on their home court. The Mavericks' potential returns of key role players like Washington and Gafford will also help them cover this spread.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 225.5

55%

Both the Mavericks and Bulls have exhibited poor defensive ratings throughout the 2025-26 season, with the Bulls averaging 121.3 opponent points per game and the Mavericks 119.3. While key offensive players are out for both sides, their defensive deficiencies and pace of play (Bulls 2nd in Pace, Mavericks 4th in Pace) suggest a game with a relatively high number of possessions. Despite the injuries, the remaining players will likely contribute to an up-tempo, less defensively focused contest, pushing the total over.

⚠️ Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks

Polymarket suggests a 63% chance for the Mavericks to win at home against the injury-plagued Bulls. Given the Bulls' substantial injuries and recent struggles, our model estimates a slightly higher probability for a Mavericks outright win, creating a positive edge at the implied odds.

💰 Sharp Money

Indications are that sharp money might be leaning towards Dallas covering a small spread, reflecting their home advantage and the Bulls' severe injury woes. Line movement: Early line movements for future games like this are speculative, but given the publicly available injury reports for both teams, any movement would likely be in favor of the healthier (or less injured) team, which appears to be Dallas with potential returns.