Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Tigers Win

Predicted: 5-3

⚡66%

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently struggling with a significant number of pitching injuries, including key starters like Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos. Their bullpen has also been impacted. This has contributed to their recent poor form, holding an 18-24 record and losing three straight games as of May 13, 2026. The Detroit Tigers, while also dealing with injuries, have a potential boost with starting pitcher Casey Mize eligible to return from the injured list on May 16th, and he is not expected to require a rehab start. This could provide a significant lift to their rotation. Although both teams have TBD probable pitchers for this game, the overall depth and recent performance indicate a stronger position for the Tigers at home. The Tigers also hold an 8-6 head-to-head advantage over the Blue Jays in the last three seasons.

SPREAD PREDICTION

home (-1.5)

71%

Given the Blue Jays' extensive pitching woes and their recent struggles, the Tigers are favored to win this game. While a -1.5 spread can be challenging in MLB, the potential return of a strong starter like Casey Mize for the Tigers, combined with the Blue Jays' depleted pitching staff, suggests the Tigers have a reasonable chance to win by more than one run. The Blue Jays' offense has also been inconsistent, making it harder for them to overcome a deficit against a potentially stronger Tigers pitching performance.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

71%

The total of 8.5 runs presents an interesting scenario. While the Blue Jays' pitching injuries could lead to higher scoring, the potential return of Casey Mize for the Tigers could suppress runs. Additionally, both teams have been inconsistent offensively, with the Blue Jays having a team batting average of .251 and the Tigers at .243. The Tigers' overall team ERA is 3.99, while the Blue Jays' is 4.08. Considering these factors, and the possibility of a more dominant outing from the Tigers' starter, a slightly lower-scoring game is anticipated, making the 'under' a reasonable pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Without specific line movement data, it's hard to pinpoint sharp money. However, given the public's tendency to fade injured teams, sharp money might look for value if the Blue Jays' odds become overly inflated, or if there's an unexpected pitching announcement. Line movement: As of now, no odds are available. Once lines are released, expect movement based on confirmed pitching matchups and any further injury updates, especially concerning Casey Mize's status.