Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Pittsburgh Pirates Win

Predicted: 5-3

⚡66%

The Pittsburgh Pirates are favored in this matchup primarily due to the Chicago Cubs' severe recent slump, having lost eight consecutive games and 12 of their last 14. While the Pirates have also been inconsistent, they hold home-field advantage at PNC Park and are expected to start their ace, Paul Skenes (6-4, 3.00 ERA, 65 SO), who is a strong presence on the mound. The Cubs, despite a better overall record (29-24 vs. 27-26), are struggling offensively and have several key pitchers on the injured list, which has likely contributed to their poor form. The Pirates also won their first series against the Cubs this season in April.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-1.5)

70%

Given the Chicago Cubs' significant losing streak and their struggles at the plate, a multi-run victory for the Pirates at home is a reasonable expectation. The Pirates, with Paul Skenes on the mound, are capable of limiting the Cubs' scoring, while their offense, though inconsistent, has the potential to capitalize on the Cubs' recent pitching woes. The Cubs' pitching depth has been impacted by several long-term injuries, which could be exploited.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 9

72%

With Paul Skenes, a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA, starting for the Pirates, the expectation is for him to keep the Cubs' struggling offense in check. The Cubs have been in a severe slump, indicating their bats are cold. While the Pirates' offense can be unpredictable, the presence of a strong starting pitcher for the home team, combined with the visitor's current offensive struggles, points towards a lower-scoring affair, making the 'under' on 9 runs a confident pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money might be leaning towards the Pirates, especially on the money line or a smaller spread, given the significant value in betting against a team in such a deep slump. The 'under' on total runs could also attract sharp action with Skenes pitching. Line movement: Without live odds for May 28, it's speculative, but if the Cubs continue to lose leading up to the game, we would expect the line to move in favor of the Pirates, potentially increasing their money line odds and adjusting the spread to reflect a higher probability of a Pirates win.