Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Pittsburgh Pirates Win

Predicted: 4-3

⚡71%

The Pittsburgh Pirates, despite recent injuries to key hitters Ryan O'Hearn and Joey Bart, are predicted to secure a narrow victory at home against the Chicago Cubs. The primary factor in this prediction is the probable starting pitcher for the Pirates, Paul Skenes, who boasts an elite 1.98 ERA and leads the team in wins. While the Cubs' probable starter, Ben Brown, also has a strong 1.60 ERA, he has only pitched four innings in each of his last two starts, suggesting a potential reliance on the bullpen which has seen recent adjustments and injuries. The Cubs hold a better overall record (29-16) compared to the Pirates (24-22), but the Pirates have shown a competitive edge in their head-to-head matchups this season, holding a 2-1 record against the Cubs. This game is expected to be a tightly contested, lower-scoring affair given the quality of the starting pitching.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (+1.5)

58%

Given the expectation of a close, low-scoring game (predicted 4-3), taking the home underdog Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 runs offers good value. Paul Skenes's ability to limit runs should keep the Pirates within striking distance, making it difficult for the Cubs to win by more than one run, even if they manage a victory. The Cubs' potential bullpen usage due to Ben Brown's recent short outings further supports a tight contest.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 7.5

65%

With Paul Skenes (1.98 ERA) on the mound for the Pirates and Ben Brown (1.60 ERA) starting for the Cubs, both teams are expected to keep runs at a premium. Our predicted score of 4-3 totals 7 runs, which aligns with an 'under' pick on a 7.5 line. Both teams possess solid pitching, and despite some offensive injuries for the Pirates, this matchup points to a pitcher's duel.

✅ Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates

Based on Paul Skenes's elite pitching at home and the Cubs' potential bullpen strain, our model sees the Pirates winning more often than the implied odds suggest, creating a positive expected value.

✅ Total Runs: Under 7.5

With two strong starting pitchers and both teams showing defensive prowess (Pirates 3rd best in HR allowed), a lower-scoring game is highly probable. The implied odds for the Under 7.5 are favorable given our assessment of the pitching matchup.

💰 Sharp Money

No specific information on sharp money movement is available for this future game, but given the pitching matchup, sharps might look at the 'Under' or the home underdog Pirates. Line movement: No pre-game line movement is currently available as of May 19, 2026, for the May 25th game. Lines are expected to open closer to game day, with pitching confirmations being a major driver.