New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

St. Louis Cardinals Win

Predicted: St. Louis Cardinals 5 - New York Mets 3

⚡71%

The St. Louis Cardinals, despite a recent four-game losing streak, hold a stronger overall record (29-25) compared to the New York Mets (23-33) as of late May 2026. The Mets are significantly impacted by a lengthy injury list, including key players like Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Kodai Senga, and Clay Holmes, which severely weakens their lineup and pitching staff. While some Mets players like Francisco Alvarez and Jorge Polanco are nearing returns, their immediate impact is uncertain. The Cardinals boast strong offensive performances from Jordan Walker, who is having an 'incredible' season with 15 homers and 42 RBIs, and rookie JJ Wetherholt. Historically, the Cardinals have a 6-4 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head games against the Mets, and a 2-1 record against them in the 2026 season. The Cardinals playing at home should also provide a slight advantage, helping them overcome their recent slump against an injury-riddled Mets squad.

SPREAD PREDICTION

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+1.5)

65%

Given the Cardinals' superior overall record and the extensive injury woes plaguing the Mets, the Cardinals are favored to win by more than one run. The Mets' depleted pitching staff and inconsistent offense due to key absences make it challenging for them to keep games close against a team with strong offensive contributors like Jordan Walker.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

60%

While the Cardinals have strong hitters, their recent form includes a four-game losing streak, suggesting their offense might not be at its peak. The Mets' offense has been inconsistent, and with several key bats injured, they are likely to struggle to put up many runs. Additionally, the Mets' pitching, despite injuries, might still manage to limit the Cardinals to a reasonable score, leading to a game with fewer than 8.5 total runs.

💰 Sharp Money

Likely on the Cardinals, especially if Nootbaar's return is confirmed and the line reflects the Mets' injury woes. However, the recent losing streak might deter some sharp money until the Cardinals show a rebound. Line movement: Without initial odds, it's hard to predict movement. However, if the Cardinals open as slight favorites, expect the line to move further in their favor as news of Mets' injuries and Cardinals' potential returns (like Nootbaar) solidifies.