New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Detroit Tigers Win

Predicted: Detroit Tigers 4 - New York Mets 2

⚡71%

The New York Mets are severely hampered by a multitude of key offensive injuries, including Francisco Lindor (calf strain), Jorge Polanco (Achilles), and Luis Robert Jr. (lumbar disc herniation), all of whom are out. Additionally, starting catcher Francisco Álvarez exited the May 12th game against the Tigers with a right knee injury and is scheduled for an MRI, making his availability highly doubtful for May 17th. While the Mets recently secured a dominant 10-2 win against the Tigers on May 12th and have a respectable 6-4 record over their last 10 games, the cumulative impact of these significant absences on their lineup is expected to be substantial. The Detroit Tigers, despite being in a recent slump (losing six of their last seven games), could receive a significant boost with the potential return of starting pitcher Casey Mize, who is eligible to come off the injured list on May 15th and has been throwing live batting practice without needing a rehab start. Mize posted a 2.90 ERA before his injury, which would be a strong asset against a depleted Mets offense. The Tigers also hold a slightly better overall record (19-23) compared to the Mets (16-25) as of mid-May. Given the Mets' compromised offense and the potential for a strong pitching performance from Mize, the Tigers are favored to secure a road victory.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+1.5)

71%

With the New York Mets missing several key offensive players due to injury, their ability to generate runs consistently will be challenged. Even if the game is close, the Detroit Tigers, despite their recent struggles, have a chance to win outright or keep the score tight. The potential return of Casey Mize to the Tigers' rotation would further bolster their chances of limiting the Mets' scoring. Therefore, picking the Tigers with a +1.5 run spread offers good value, anticipating a low-scoring affair where the Tigers either win or lose by a single run.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

66%

The Mets' lineup is severely weakened by injuries to Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and likely Francisco Álvarez. This will significantly suppress their offensive output. On the other side, the Detroit Tigers' offense has also been inconsistent, struggling to convert hits into runs in recent games. If Casey Mize returns for the Tigers, he provides a strong arm to further limit scoring. Even without Mize, the overall offensive struggles and key absences suggest a lower-scoring game. A predicted score of 4-2 (total 6) falls comfortably under a typical total of 8.5, making the 'under' a confident pick.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money is likely to be on the Tigers, especially if Casey Mize is confirmed as the starting pitcher. The value lies in fading a heavily injured Mets lineup. Line movement: Without opening odds, it's difficult to predict line movement. However, if Mize is confirmed, the Tigers' moneyline and spread odds would likely shorten. If Álvarez is confirmed out, the Mets' odds would lengthen.