MLBMonday, May 11, 2026, 11:10 PM UTC
Game starts in 7h 45m
New York Mets
vs
Detroit Tigers
AI Confidence: โก71%
Winner: New York Mets Win (โก71%)
Spread: New York Mets -1.5 (-1.5) (โก71%)
Total: Under 8.5 (57%)
Get $5 Free Bet โ No Deposit Required
Bet New York Mets Win ยท AI confidence 71%
18+ ยท Play Responsibly ยท Predictify Sports may earn commission ยท Affiliate disclosure
New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
The New York Mets, despite their struggles this season, hold a distinct pitching advantage with Freddy Peralta starting at home against Jack Flaherty and an injury-riddled Detroit Tigers lineup. The Mets' recent offensive improvements and the Tigers' bullpen concerns further bolster the home team's chances.
New York Mets host Detroit Tigers on Monday, part of the 2026 MLB season. Both teams' season records, recent form, and matchup-specific factors are detailed in the stats and prediction sections below.
ATS PREDICTION
New York Mets Win
Predicted: 5-3
โก71%
The New York Mets are favored in this matchup primarily due to their starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, who boasts a strong 3.12 ERA compared to the Detroit Tigers' starter, Jack Flaherty, with a significantly higher 5.56 ERA. Despite the Mets' overall disappointing 7-13 record, their offense has shown a slight uptick, averaging 4.8 runs per game in their last five outings. [cite: 23, stat block] The Tigers, while having a better overall record at 10-10, are currently dealing with significant injuries to key offensive players such as Gleyber Torres and Javier Bรกez, which severely impacts their run-scoring potential. Furthermore, Detroit's bullpen struggled in 2025, ranking last in K/9, suggesting potential late-game vulnerabilities.
SPREAD PREDICTION
New York Mets -1.5 (-1.5)
71%
Given Freddy Peralta's pitching advantage and the Tigers' injured lineup, the Mets are expected to win by at least two runs. While specific bookmaker lines were not available, this spread aligns with the Mets' home-field advantage and pitching superiority in this specific contest.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 8.5
57%
With Peralta on the mound for the Mets and both teams dealing with offensive injuries, a lower-scoring game is anticipated. Although Flaherty has struggled, Peralta's ability to limit runs against a depleted Tigers lineup should keep the total under 8.5 runs.
๐ More Markets
๐ Additional Markets
First 5 Innings Winner
New York Mets
Freddy Peralta's strong starting pitching is expected to give the Mets an early lead, making them a solid pick to be leading after the first five innings.
Team Total Runs (New York Mets)
Over 4.5
Against Jack Flaherty's high ERA and with their recent offensive improvement, the Mets are likely to score at least 5 runs in this game.
Team Total Runs (Detroit Tigers)
Under 3.5
Facing Freddy Peralta and with several key hitters sidelined by injury, the Tigers are projected to struggle offensively and score fewer than 4 runs.
Race to 3 Runs
New York Mets
The Mets' stronger starting pitcher and recent offensive uptick give them a higher probability of being the first team to reach 3 runs.
Margin of Victory (New York Mets)
1-3 Runs
While the Mets are favored, the high-variance nature of baseball and their own inconsistencies suggest a win by a moderate margin rather than a blowout.
New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers
๐ฐ Sharp Money
N/A (No real-time odds available) Line movement: N/A (No real-time odds available)
AI Same Game Parlay โ New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.97 (+597)
AI Confidence: 71%
$10 โ $69.68 | $25 โ $174.20 | $50 โ $348.39
Correlation: Positive correlation, as a strong pitching performance by Peralta would contribute to both a Mets win and an 'under' total, and an early lead for the Mets.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธMets' inconsistent overall performance despite pitching advantage
- โ ๏ธAny unexpected strong offensive performance from Tigers' healthy players
- โ ๏ธBullpen struggles for either team in later innings
Model Confidence
โก68%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขLack of real-time betting odds for the specific game date
- โขReliance on probable pitcher information that may shift closer to game day
- โขGeneral high-variance nature of MLB games
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers โ FAQ
For the New York Mets, Freddy Peralta (RHP) is the probable starter with a 2-3 record and a 3.12 ERA. The Detroit Tigers are expected to start Jack Flaherty (RHP), who has a 0-3 record and a 5.56 ERA.
Our MLB predictions weigh starting pitcher matchups, bullpen depth, lineup form, ballpark factors, and weather. Baseball is structurally high-variance โ confidence rarely exceeds 65% on the moneyline even with a clear pitching edge. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI MLB Picks hub.