New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Cincinnati Reds Win

Predicted: 6-3

⚡71%

The Cincinnati Reds are favored due to their superior offensive form and a more stable starting pitching situation. Reds starter Andrew Abbott (4-2, 3.97 ERA) has been solid, particularly in road games. In contrast, the New York Mets will employ an opener, Huascar Brazobán (3-1, 1.73 ERA), followed by bulk reliever Jonah Tong, whose 2025 numbers show a high ERA and WHIP over limited starts, creating uncertainty. Cincinnati's offense has been scorching hot, batting .336 with a .500 slugging percentage over their past three games, and they have won the previous two games of this series against the Mets by a score of 7-2. The Mets, conversely, are in a significant offensive slump, batting only .176 over their last six games and struggling particularly against left-handed pitching, which they will face in Abbott.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-1.5)

60%

Given the Reds' current offensive momentum and the Mets' struggles at the plate, particularly against left-handed pitching, Cincinnati is well-positioned to win by more than one run. The Mets' strategy of using an opener followed by a bulk reliever could also create opportunities for the Reds' hot offense to score early and build a lead that exceeds the -1.5 run line.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 7.5

62%

Cincinnati's offense has been highly productive, scoring 7 runs in each of the last two games against the Mets. While Andrew Abbott is a capable starter, the Mets' bullpen game, featuring Jonah Tong who had a high ERA in 2025, presents a chance for more runs. The Reds' recent offensive success against struggling Mets pitching points to the Over being a strong play.

✅ Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' strong pitching and current offensive surge make their true win probability higher than the implied 50% from the odds.

✅ Team Total Runs: Cincinnati Reds Over 3.5

Cincinnati's offense has scored 7 runs in each of the last two games against the Mets, and they are facing a Mets pitching staff that includes a bulk reliever with a history of struggles.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp bettors are likely backing the Reds, targeting the Mets' fading offense and uncertain pitching situation. Line movement: Given the strong public sentiment towards the Reds and sharp money likely flowing their way, the line for Cincinnati's moneyline may shorten, and their run line odds may become less favorable.