MLBMonday, May 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC
Game starts in 4d 4h 49m
Mets
vs
Reds
AI Confidence: โก66%
Winner: Reds Win (โก66%)
Spread: Reds -1.5 (-1.5) (โก68%)
Total: Under 8.5 (โก65%)
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Bet Reds Win ยท AI confidence 66%
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Mets vs Reds Prediction
The Cincinnati Reds enter this game with a significant advantage on the mound with Chase Burns. The New York Mets are battling numerous key injuries to both their rotation and their lineup, making this a challenging home stand. This game projects to be a lower-scoring affair with the Reds securing the win.
Mets host Reds on Monday, part of the 2026 MLB season. Both teams' season records, recent form, and matchup-specific factors are detailed in the stats and prediction sections below.
ATS PREDICTION
Reds Win
Predicted: CIN 5 - NYM 2
โก66%
The Cincinnati Reds are favored in this matchup primarily due to the confirmed presence of elite starting pitcher Chase Burns (6-1, 1.83 ERA, 64 K) on the mound. The New York Mets, on the other hand, have a 'TBD' starter, indicating a likely bullpen game or a less experienced pitcher, exacerbated by significant injuries to key starters like Clay Holmes (fractured fibula) and Kodai Senga (lumbar spine inflammation). While the Mets have shown some recent offensive spark, winning 6 of their last 7 games as of May 19th, they are severely hampered by injuries to core players such as Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, and Luis Robert Jr., which will undoubtedly impact their scoring potential. The Reds' offense, despite a recent slump, still features strong hitters like Elly De La Cruz (.297 AVG, 11 HR) and should be able to generate runs against an unconfirmed or weaker Mets pitching staff. Citi Field, the Mets' home ballpark, generally plays as a pitcher-friendly park, which further benefits an elite arm like Burns.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Reds -1.5 (-1.5)
68%
Given Chase Burns' dominant pitching, the Reds are expected to win by at least two runs. The Mets' lineup is significantly weakened by injuries to key hitters, making it difficult for them to keep the game close against an elite starter.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 8.5
65%
With Chase Burns on the mound for the Reds (1.83 ERA) and the Mets struggling with offensive injuries, a lower-scoring game is anticipated. While the Mets' starting pitcher is TBD, the overall offensive output is expected to be suppressed.
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First 5 Innings Winner
Cincinnati Reds
With Chase Burns (1.83 ERA) expected to dominate early, the Reds are highly likely to lead after the first five innings against a struggling Mets lineup and an unconfirmed starter.
Team Total Runs (Cincinnati Reds)
Over 4.5
Against a likely weaker Mets starter and a potentially taxed bullpen, the Reds' offense should be able to score at least 5 runs.
Team Total Runs (New York Mets)
Under 3.5
Facing an elite pitcher in Chase Burns (1.83 ERA) and with their key offensive players sidelined due to injury, the Mets are expected to struggle to score more than 3 runs.
Race to 5 Runs
Cincinnati Reds
Given Burns' ability to limit the Mets' scoring and the Reds' offensive potential against a TBD pitcher, Cincinnati has a much higher probability of being the first team to reach 5 runs.
Elly De La Cruz Total Bases
Over 1.5
Elly De La Cruz is a strong offensive performer for the Reds with a .297 AVG and 11 HR. Against a less formidable Mets pitcher, he has a good chance to accumulate multiple bases.
Mets vs Reds โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Mets vs Reds
โ Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds moneyline offers value considering Chase Burns' dominant pitching and the Mets' extensive injury list, which significantly weakens their chances.
โ Total Runs (Under): Under 8.5
An under bet is favorable due to Burns' low ERA and the Mets' injured offense, suggesting fewer runs will be scored than the set total.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Indications are that sharp money might be coming in on the Reds, particularly on their moneyline and the game's total going under, given the significant pitching disparity. Line movement: Expect the Reds' moneyline odds to shorten as the game approaches once the Mets confirm a less formidable starting pitcher.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Mets vs Reds
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 5.99 (+499)
AI Confidence: 60%
$10 โ $59.90 | $25 โ $149.75 | $50 โ $299.50
Correlation: Positive correlation: A strong performance by Chase Burns (leading to more strikeouts and fewer runs allowed) directly contributes to a Reds win and an 'under' total.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธMets' 'TBD' pitcher could be an unheralded arm having a breakout performance.
- โ ๏ธBaseball's inherent high variance can lead to unpredictable outcomes.
- โ ๏ธReds' recent offensive struggles could persist even against a weaker pitcher.
Data Quality Score
โก72%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขExact Mets starting pitcher for May 25, 2026, is not yet confirmed.
- โขSpecific bullpen usage for the day prior to the game is unavailable this far in advance.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Mets vs Reds โ FAQ
As of May 21st, 2026, the New York Mets' starting pitcher for the May 25th game against the Cincinnati Reds is listed as 'TBD' (To Be Determined).
Our MLB predictions weigh starting pitcher matchups, bullpen depth, lineup form, ballpark factors, and weather. Baseball is structurally high-variance โ confidence rarely exceeds 65% on the moneyline even with a clear pitching edge. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI MLB Picks hub.