Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

St. Louis Cardinals Win

Predicted: St. Louis Cardinals 6 - Cincinnati Reds 3

⚡66%

The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a significantly healthier and more effective pitching staff compared to the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are severely hampered by injuries to key starters like Hunter Greene (out until July), Rhett Lowder (15-day IL), and Brandon Williamson (60-day IL). Their rotation has struggled tremendously in Greene's absence, with pitchers like Brady Singer holding an ERA near 6.00 and recent acquisition Chris Paddack sporting a 7.63 ERA. In contrast, the Cardinals' offense has been surprisingly potent in 2026, ranking 6th in MLB home runs and featuring strong performances from players like Jordan Walker (.294/.370/.575 with 12 HR). While the probable pitchers for May 22nd are TBD, the overall health and performance trends strongly favor the Cardinals, who are 25-18 and tied for a Wild Card spot, over the 23-21 Reds who have been struggling recently.

SPREAD PREDICTION

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-1.5)

66%

Given the Reds' extensive pitching injuries and the struggles of their available starters, the Cardinals' potent offense is well-positioned to score multiple runs. The game being played at Great American Ball Park, a known hitter-friendly venue, further amplifies the potential for the Cardinals to win by more than one run against a depleted Reds pitching staff.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 9.5

71%

The combination of a hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and the Reds' struggling, injury-riddled pitching rotation creates a strong likelihood for a higher-scoring game. The Cardinals' offense has shown an improved ability to hit for power this season, which should translate to runs against a vulnerable Reds' pitching staff. Even if the Cardinals' pitching holds up, the Reds' offense could contribute enough runs against a mid-tier Cardinals starter to push the total over.

💰 Sharp Money

Expect sharp money to target the Cardinals, especially if the Reds confirm a struggling pitcher as their starter. The over on the total runs will also likely attract sharp action given the park and Reds' pitching. Line movement: If initial odds are released as a pick'em or with the Reds as slight favorites (unlikely given injuries), expect significant line movement towards the Cardinals. The total line is likely to open high and potentially move higher.