MLBFriday, Apr 17, 2026, 6:20 PM UTC
Game starts in 1d 16h 20m
Chicago Cubs
vs
New York Mets
AI Confidence: โก68%
Winner: Chicago Cubs Win (โก68%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-1.5) (60%)
Total: Under 8.5 (58%)
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction
The Chicago Cubs, featuring an in-form Edward Cabrera on the mound, are favored to defeat the struggling New York Mets, who are in a five-game skid and missing key offensive player Juan Soto. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Cubs, despite both teams dealing with several injuries.
ATS PREDICTION
Chicago Cubs Win
Predicted: 6-3
โก68%
The Chicago Cubs hold a significant pitching advantage with Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) starting against the New York Mets' Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA). The Mets are currently on a five-game losing streak and have struggled offensively, including being swept by the Athletics and losing consecutive games to the Dodgers by large margins. Key Mets hitter Juan Soto is also sidelined with a calf strain, further weakening their lineup. While the Cubs have their own rotation injuries, Cabrera's elite early-season performance combined with home-field advantage and the Mets' poor recent form points towards a Cubs victory.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-1.5)
60%
Given Edward Cabrera's dominant 1.62 ERA and the Mets' ongoing five-game losing streak with a struggling offense, the Cubs are well-positioned to win by more than one run. The Mets' inability to generate offense, even against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a recent outing, suggests they will struggle to score against Cabrera.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 8.5
58%
With Edward Cabrera's impressive 1.62 ERA for the Cubs, he is expected to limit the Mets' scoring opportunities. The Mets have been in an offensive slump, which contributes to a lower total run expectation for this game. While Kodai Senga's 7.07 ERA for the Mets is concerning, the overall context suggests that the total runs will stay under 8.5.
๐ More Markets
๐ Additional Markets
First Inning Winner
Chicago Cubs
With Edward Cabrera's strong start to the season and the Mets' offensive struggles, the Cubs have a good chance to take an early lead in the first inning.
Race to 3 Runs
Chicago Cubs
Given Cabrera's ability to limit opponents and Senga's higher ERA, the Cubs are more likely to reach three runs first as they face a more vulnerable pitcher at home.
Winning Margin
Chicago Cubs by 1-3 runs
While the Cubs have a clear pitching advantage, MLB games are high-variance. A win by a modest margin is a reasonable expectation given the overall team situations.
Chicago Cubs Total Runs
Over 4.5
Playing at home against a pitcher with a 7.07 ERA, the Cubs offense is expected to generate at least 5 runs, even with some offensive injuries.
New York Mets Total Hits
Under 7.5
Edward Cabrera's strong ERA and the Mets' recent offensive struggles make it likely they will have difficulty accumulating many hits in this game.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets โ Key Stats (AI)
Betting Angles โ Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
โ ๏ธ Moneyline: Chicago Cubs
Betting markets are showing a near 50/50 split or even a slight lean towards the Mets despite the Cubs' significant pitching advantage and the Mets' recent poor form and injuries. This creates a clear value opportunity on the Cubs' moneyline.
โ ๏ธ First 5 Innings Moneyline: Chicago Cubs
Edward Cabrera's strong starts typically lead to the Cubs having an early lead. Against a struggling Mets offense and a higher ERA pitcher in Senga, the Cubs are very likely to be ahead after five innings.
โ ๏ธ New York Mets Team Total: Under 3.5 runs
The Mets offense has been poor lately, particularly during their five-game losing streak. Facing Edward Cabrera, who boasts a 1.62 ERA, they are expected to struggle to score more than 3 runs.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
No specific sharp money indicators were found, but the conflicting market odds suggest some disagreement among bettors. Line movement: Initial betting lines are not widely published for this specific game's spread and total, but the moneyline appears to be tight, fluctuating around pick'em or a slight lean to either side.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 480.00 (+47900)
AI Confidence: 60%
$10 โ $4800.00 | $25 โ $12000.00 | $50 โ $24000.00
Correlation: Positive - A strong outing by Cabrera (leading to more strikeouts) directly contributes to a Cubs win and a lower overall game total, especially against a struggling Mets offense.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธMLB's inherent high variance nature
- โ ๏ธMets' ability to 'break out' of their slump unexpectedly
- โ ๏ธImpact of other Cubs' pitching injuries on bullpen support
- โ ๏ธFrancisco Lindor's uncertain hand injury status
Model Confidence
โก68%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขLack of specific confirmed betting lines (spread/total) for the exact game date, requiring estimation.
- โขBullpen usage for the previous day (April 16th) was not explicitly available, requiring a general assessment of bullpen depth.
- โขConflicting information on Francisco Lindor's injury status, though recent game performance suggests he may play.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets โ FAQ
Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) is expected to start for the Chicago Cubs, while Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) will take the mound for the New York Mets.