Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Detroit Tigers Win

Predicted: 4-2

⚡71%

The Detroit Tigers, despite a slightly worse overall record (19-25) than the Orioles (20-24), hold a significant advantage with their probable starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal. Skubal boasts an impressive 2.73 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 36.1 innings pitched this season, indicating strong form. In contrast, the Baltimore Orioles are expected to start Shane Baz, who carries a much higher 5.48 ERA. While Baltimore has a slightly better offensive average, Detroit's pitching, especially with Skubal on the mound, is a key differentiator. The Tigers' bullpen also appears to be in reasonable shape, despite some questions around closer Kenley Jansen, while the Orioles have several key relievers on the injured list including Ryan Helsley and Felix Bautista. This pitching mismatch gives the Tigers a solid edge on the road.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+1.5)

71%

With Tarik Skubal's strong performance this season (2.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) against Shane Baz's higher ERA (5.48), the Tigers are well-positioned to keep this game close or win outright. Their bullpen, while having some concerns, should be able to hold a lead or keep the deficit small enough to cover the +1.5 spread. Given the high-variance nature of MLB, getting 1.5 runs with a superior starting pitcher is a solid play.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

57%

Tarik Skubal's low ERA of 2.73 suggests he will limit the Orioles' scoring opportunities. While Shane Baz's ERA is high, Comerica Park, the Tigers' home stadium, has historically been a slightly pitcher-friendly park, which could help suppress scoring. Although the game is in Baltimore, the projected run totals for both teams (Orioles 4.3, Tigers 4.3) are moderate, and with Skubal on the mound, runs should be at a premium for at least half the game.

✅ Moneyline: Detroit Tigers

Given Tarik Skubal's excellent 2.73 ERA and the Orioles' Shane Baz's 5.48 ERA, the Tigers winning outright holds significant value, even if the implied probability suggests a coin flip.

✅ Total Runs: Under 8.5

Skubal's ability to limit runs should drive down the total, making the under on 8.5 runs a good value, especially considering the Tigers' team ERA of 3.90.

💰 Sharp Money

Undetermined, no specific line movement data available for May 22, 2026. Line movement: No significant line movement observed for May 22, 2026, as current odds are not widely available.