Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Arizona Diamondbacks Win

Predicted: 5-3

⚡71%

The Arizona Diamondbacks, despite a recent slump, hold a superior season record of 16-17 compared to the New York Mets' 7-13. Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks' probable starter, is a top-tier pitcher with a 4.45 ERA, and although he had a recent rough outing, he is expected to make his scheduled start and typically performs well at home. The Mets are battling numerous key injuries, including Kodai Senga, Francisco Lindor, and Luis Robert Jr., which significantly weakens their lineup and pitching depth. While Mets' starter Clay Holmes has had a strong season with a 1.75 ERA, the cumulative impact of injuries and recent struggles for the Mets' offense and bullpen will be difficult to overcome against Gallen and a motivated Diamondbacks squad at home.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-1.5)

71%

Given Arizona's better overall record and the significant injuries plaguing the Mets' key offensive and defensive players, the Diamondbacks are favored to win by more than one run. Zac Gallen's presence on the mound for Arizona provides a strong foundation for limiting the Mets' scoring opportunities. The Mets' inconsistent offense, compounded by injuries, makes it challenging for them to keep games close against stronger pitching. I will assume a line of -1.5 for the Diamondbacks as a plausible spread pick.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

71%

With Zac Gallen on the mound for the Diamondbacks, even with his recent ERA, he is capable of shutting down opposing offenses. The New York Mets are dealing with substantial offensive injuries, including Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr., which will likely hinder their run-scoring ability. While the Diamondbacks' rotation ERA is high, Gallen is an exception, and the Mets' offensive struggles combined with a relatively good Mets starter in Clay Holmes (1.75 ERA) point towards a lower-scoring affair. I will assume a total line of 8.5 for this prediction.

✅ Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks

The model's probability for a Diamondbacks win (68%) is higher than the implied probability from the assumed odds (57.47%), indicating a positive edge. This considers the Diamondbacks' stronger team record and the Mets' significant injury woes, particularly on offense.

✅ Total Runs: Under 8.5

With Zac Gallen on the mound for Arizona and the Mets' offensive lineup severely impacted by injuries, a low-scoring game is highly probable. The implied probability of 52.36% for the 'under' is lower than the model's 65% confidence, suggesting value.

💰 Sharp Money

No specific sharp money movements are available at this time for the May 9, 2026 game. However, a significant move towards the Diamondbacks moneyline or the total going under would indicate sharp action. Line movement: Current lines are not yet established for May 9, 2026. Early indications would likely show Arizona as a moderate favorite. I will assume early lines will reflect Arizona as a favorite due to team records and Mets injuries.