the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2026 Prediction

TOURNAMENT WINNER

Scottie Scheffler

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-14)

⚡75%

Muirfield Village often favors players with strong all-around games, particularly those excelling in Strokes Gained: Approach and Around-the-Green. Scottie Scheffler, a two-time consecutive winner in 2024 and 2025, has demonstrated an exceptional ability to navigate this challenging course with precision ball-striking and a masterful short game. His consistent performance at this signature event, coupled with the speculative assumption of continued top form, makes him a strong favorite. The course's demanding nature typically leads to winning scores around -10 to -15.

TOP CONTENDERS

Scottie Scheffler (25%), Patrick Cantlay (15%), Jon Rahm (12%)

25%

Scottie Scheffler: As the presumptive two-time defending champion (2024, 2025), Scheffler has proven his mastery of Muirfield Village. His consistent elite-level play and ability to perform under pressure on challenging courses make him a perennial favorite. He excels in all key statistical categories required for success here. Patrick Cantlay: A multiple winner of the Memorial Tournament (2019, 2021), Patrick Cantlay consistently performs well at Muirfield Village. His strategic play, strong iron game, and putting prowess are well-suited for Jack Nicklaus' design. He understands how to navigate the course's nuances. Jon Rahm: A past champion (2020), Jon Rahm possesses the powerful driving and excellent iron play needed to contend at Muirfield Village. While his current PGA Tour status in 2026 is speculative, assuming his return and top form, his aggressive yet precise style can overpower parts of the course.

FIRST ROUND LEADER

Rory McIlroy

60%

McIlroy often starts tournaments strongly with his aggressive driving and hot putting. If he finds his rhythm early, he can post a low score. The course can yield birdies in the first round before conditions potentially toughen.

⚠️ Outright Winner: Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas, when in form, possesses all the tools to win at Muirfield Village with his elite iron play and creativity. If his odds are around 21.00, it could present value based on his potential to contend at a demanding course like this.

✅ Top 10 Finish: Hideki Matsuyama

A past champion (2014), Matsuyama consistently displays strong iron play, a key attribute for Muirfield Village. His short game can be volatile, but his ball-striking often puts him in contention for top finishes at this event.

💰 Sharp Money

Likely to come in on proven course performers and top-ranked players once the field is set. Line movement: Early lines, if available, would be speculative and shift significantly closer to the tournament based on player commitments and recent form.