PGA Championship 2026 Prediction

TOURNAMENT WINNER

Scottie Scheffler

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-10)

⚡65%

Scottie Scheffler enters the PGA Championship as the clear favorite, demonstrating unparalleled consistency and a major championship pedigree. His recent form, including strong finishes at the Masters and RBC Heritage, suggests he is in excellent rhythm for Aronimink's demanding layout. The course, a classic Donald Ross design, rewards precision and strategic play, attributes that align perfectly with Scheffler's controlled ball-striking and superior short game. While no victory is guaranteed in a major, his current dominance makes him the most likely contender to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

TOP CONTENDERS

Scottie Scheffler (25%), Rory McIlroy (15%), Jon Rahm (8%)

25%

Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler's consistent elite performance, particularly in majors, and his defending champion status make him the top pick. His all-around game is suited for challenging courses like Aronimink. Rory McIlroy: McIlroy's recent Masters victory and strong historical performance on Donald Ross designs position him as a formidable challenger. His power and improved short game could be crucial on Aronimink. Jon Rahm: Rahm possesses the mental fortitude and ball-striking prowess required for a major championship. Despite a reported 'late-round mistakes' at the 2025 PGA Championship, his overall major record is strong, making him a perennial threat.

FIRST ROUND LEADER

Justin Thomas

55%

Justin Thomas is known for his aggressive style and ability to go low in early rounds, and has a major championship already under his belt. He could capitalize on fresh conditions.

⚠️ Outright Winner: Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood's recent form, including four top-10 finishes, suggests he is playing well and his consistent ball-striking and creative short game are well-suited for a Donald Ross track like Aronimink. The odds of 31.00 (+3000) offer value for a player on the cusp of his first major.

✅ Top 10 Finish: Brooks Koepka

Despite some recent struggles mentioned for other events, Koepka has an outstanding record in major championships, consistently elevating his game on the biggest stages. His focus and power should translate well to Aronimink, and the odds for a top-10 offer good value.

💰 Sharp Money

Early sharp money appears to be on Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, as expected for major events. Line movement: Outright winner odds for top contenders like Scheffler and McIlroy have remained relatively stable, indicating strong market confidence. Some longer shots might see slight shortening as the tournament approaches if their lead-up form is impressive.