Friday, May 15, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 4d 2h 38m
Oluwole Jan Ciosek
vs
Shae Green
AI Confidence: โก87%
Winner: Shae Green Win (โก87%)
Spread: Shae Green -3.5 Rounds (-3.5) (โก87%)
Total: Over 5.5 (โก67%)
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Oluwole Jan Ciosek vs Shae Green Prediction
Shae Green is the clear favorite in this middleweight contest against Oluwole Jan Ciosek, based on a much stronger professional record and greater experience. Green's height advantage and consistent activity further bolster his chances for a dominant performance. The fight is anticipated to go the distance, with Green winning by decision.
Oluwole Jan Ciosek face Shae Green at SAP-Arena, Mannheim, Germany on Friday, part of the 2026 Middleweight season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
ATS PREDICTION
Shae Green Win
Predicted: 59-55
โก87%
Shae Green (9-1-1) enters this middleweight bout with a significantly superior professional record compared to Oluwole Jan Ciosek (1-3-0). Green also possesses a 3-inch height advantage (6'1" vs. 5'10") and is a more active fighter, with his BoxRec career extending to 2026 and consistent recent wins. Ciosek's professional activity has been inconsistent, with his BoxRec showing inactivity since 2023, though he has participated in sparring and fought an older opponent in March 2025. Green's experience and better overall form make him the strong favorite to secure a decision victory in this contest.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Shae Green -3.5 Rounds (-3.5)
87%
Given Shae Green's superior record and expected control of the fight, a handicap of -3.5 rounds is a reasonable pick. This suggests he would win at least four rounds more than Ciosek over a likely six-round bout. His consistent performance and Ciosek's limited success support Green covering this spread.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 5.5
67%
Shae Green has a relatively low knockout percentage of 22.22%, and Oluwole Jan Ciosek has only one knockout loss in his career. This indicates that Ciosek has a decent chin, and Green is more likely to win by decision. Therefore, the fight is expected to go past 5.5 rounds.
๐ More Markets
๐ฅ Fight Outcome
To Go the Distance
Yes
Both fighters' KO percentages and past fight outcomes suggest a high likelihood of the fight reaching the judges' scorecards.
Winning Method Double
Shae Green by Decision & Over 5.5 Rounds
This combines the two most probable outcomes, offering better odds than individual bets while reflecting the expected flow of the fight.
๐ฅ Round Betting
Round Betting (Grouped)
Shae Green Rounds 4-6
While a decision is likely, if Green secures a stoppage, it's more probable in the later rounds as he wears down Ciosek. Ciosek's past resilience suggests he can absorb early pressure.
๐ Fighter Props
Fighter to be Knocked Down
No (Either Fighter)
Green's low KO rate and Ciosek's durability suggest knockdowns might be infrequent. It's more likely to be a boxing match decided by points.
Total Punches Landed (Green)
Over X.5 (e.g., 90.5)
Green is expected to be the aggressor and control the pace, leading to a higher volume of landed punches over the course of the fight.
Oluwole Jan Ciosek vs Shae Green โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
SAP-Arena, Mannheim, Germany
Home Ground
8:00 PM UTC
Friday, May 15
Matchday kickoff
Middleweight
Boxing
Betting Angles โ Oluwole Jan Ciosek vs Shae Green
โ ๏ธ Moneyline: Shae Green
Shae Green is a significant favorite based on his record and opponent's struggles. Assuming typical odds around 1.20, our model projects a slightly higher probability (88%) of him winning, offering a small edge.
โ Method of Victory: Shae Green by Decision
Given Green's 22.22% KO rate and Ciosek's durability (only 1 KO loss), a decision win for Green is the most probable outcome. If odds are around 1.70, there could be value as our model expects this outcome more frequently.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Expected to lean heavily on Shae Green moneyline and rounds handicap. Line movement: If initial lines are tight, expect significant movement towards Shae Green as public and sharp money comes in.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Oluwole Jan Ciosek vs Shae Green
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 3.47 (+247)
AI Confidence: 67%
$10 โ $34.70 | $25 โ $86.75 | $50 โ $173.50
Correlation: Positive - A Green decision win strongly correlates with the fight going the distance, making these legs complementary.
Risk Assessment
Low Risk- โ ๏ธUnexpected early knockout (though low probability)
- โ ๏ธJudging controversy in a close decision (less likely given skill disparity)
- โ ๏ธUnforeseen injury or performance dip
Model Confidence
โก80%
Data quality: Medium
Limitations
- โขNo specific betting lines available, odds are estimations.
- โขLimited detailed fight news/injury reports for this specific lower-tier fight.
- โขCiosek's BoxRec inactivity conflicting with recent sparring/fight mentions, making true recent form slightly opaque.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Oluwole Jan Ciosek vs Shae Green โ FAQ
Oluwole Jan Ciosek has a professional record of 1 win and 3 losses (1-3-0). Shae Green holds a significantly better record of 9 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw (9-1-1).
Our boxing predictions weigh records, KO percentages, stylistic matchups, reach, age, and weight-class history. Boxing favourites generally win 70-75% of fights; elite-tier title fights tend to stay in the 55-65% confidence band. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI Boxing Predictions hub.