Moses Itauma vs Anthony Joshua Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Moses Itauma Win

Predicted: KO in Round 7

+1.8 LeoVegas

⚡87%

Moses Itauma, the younger and undefeated southpaw prospect, carries significant momentum and devastating knockout power, having stopped 12 of his 14 opponents, including experienced campaigners like Dillian Whyte and Jermaine Franklin in recent bouts. Anthony Joshua, while a two-time unified heavyweight champion, has shown vulnerabilities in recent years, including a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in 2024. Itauma's high ring IQ and aggressive, tactical style, which includes effective faints and strong body work, are well-suited to exploit Joshua's defensive gaps. Although Joshua possesses a reach advantage and renowned power, Itauma's youth, speed, and continuous improvement are expected to be the decisive factors, leading to a mid-to-late round stoppage as he overwhelms the aging veteran.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Moses Itauma -4.5 (-4.5)

67%

While a knockout is predicted, if the fight were to go the distance, Moses Itauma's superior work rate, tactical precision, and ability to win rounds clearly would likely see him secure a comfortable points victory. His consistent pressure and varied attack are expected to accumulate rounds against Anthony Joshua, who has shown a tendency to fade or become more cautious in later rounds. Itauma's southpaw stance could also cause scoring difficulties for Joshua, leading to a wider margin on the scorecards.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 9.5

87%

Both Moses Itauma and Anthony Joshua are known for their significant knockout power, making a prolonged fight less likely. Itauma boasts an 86% KO ratio with an average fight length of just 2.2 rounds, consistently finishing opponents early. Joshua also has a high KO ratio of 90% and has stopped four of his last five opponents. Given the offensive capabilities of both heavyweights and Joshua's recent stoppage loss, this bout is highly anticipated to conclude inside the distance, favoring an 'under' 9.5 rounds total.

✅ Moneyline: Moses Itauma

Bookmakers have Moses Itauma as a slight favorite with implied odds of 54%, but given his impressive unbeaten run, the speed of his stoppages, and Joshua's recent vulnerabilities, our model assigns a higher probability of 65% for Itauma to win. This presents a significant edge.

✅ Method of Victory: Moses Itauma by KO/TKO/DQ

Itauma's 86% KO ratio and rapid finishes against increasingly tougher opposition suggest a stoppage is his most likely path to victory. With Anthony Joshua having been stopped twice in his career and facing a relentless young power puncher, the probability of Itauma winning by stoppage is higher than the implied odds from typical method of victory lines would suggest.

💰 Sharp Money

While specific sharp money data is unavailable, the current betting lines show Moses Itauma as a slight favorite for this potential bout, indicating early confidence from bookmakers in his ability. Line movement: As of April 21, 2026, Moses Itauma opened as the favorite at 4/5 (-130), with Anthony Joshua at 26/25 (+100) for a potential future bout, suggesting consistent belief in Itauma's prospects.