Joseph Larcinese vs Ryoga Arimoto Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Joseph Larcinese Win

Predicted: 29-28, 28-29, 29-28

⚡100%

Joseph Larcinese defeated Ryoga Arimoto by split decision in their flyweight quarterfinal bout as part of Road to UFC Season 5 on May 29, 2026. Larcinese started strong, landing clean strikes and utilizing his movement to gain an early advantage in the opening round. However, Arimoto adjusted in the subsequent rounds, increasing his aggression and making it a competitive and tactical battle that was difficult for judges to score unanimously. Despite Arimoto's late surge, two judges ultimately scored the bout in favor of Larcinese, securing him the split decision victory.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Joseph Larcinese +2.5 rounds (+2.5)

85%

Given the fight concluded via a split decision with scores of 29-28, 28-29, 29-28, Larcinese effectively won the fight by a razor-thin margin. A hypothetical spread of +2.5 rounds for Larcinese would have easily covered, as he secured at least two rounds on two judges' scorecards. The competitive nature of the fight made any significant pre-fight handicap challenging, but Larcinese winning as the perceived underdog means his performance exceeded expectations.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 2.5

100%

The fight between Larcinese and Arimoto went the full three rounds, concluding with a judges' decision. Therefore, the 'over 2.5 rounds' bet was a clear winner.

✅ Moneyline: Joseph Larcinese

Joseph Larcinese was listed as a significant underdog at +290 (decimal 3.90) by some bookmakers, while Ryoga Arimoto was the favorite at -375 (decimal 1.27). Since Larcinese ultimately won the fight by split decision, this represents substantial value for anyone who picked the underdog. The implied probability of Larcinese winning based on these odds was only 25.6%, significantly lower than his actual outcome.

✅ Fight to Go the Distance: Yes

The fight between Larcinese and Arimoto was a tactical battle that went the full three rounds, resulting in a decision. Betting on the fight to 'go the distance' (Yes) at odds of approximately 1.85 (from Over 2.5 rounds at 2.03 and Under 2.5 rounds at 1.7, implying decision is likely, also from 3-round fight structure) would have provided good value, especially given the competitive nature and technical skills of both fighters suggesting a prolonged engagement rather than an early finish.

💰 Sharp Money

There is no direct information available regarding sharp money movements for this specific bout. However, given Larcinese's underdog victory, sharp bettors who identified his potential or Arimoto's vulnerabilities would have found significant value. Line movement: Initial betting lines showed Arimoto as a strong favorite. While specific historical line movements aren't detailed, the split decision outcome suggests that if there was line movement, it might have shifted slightly towards Larcinese as fight day approached, or remained heavily skewed towards Arimoto, leading to a profitable underdog pick.