Jack Rafferty vs Ekow Essuman Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Jack Rafferty Win

Predicted: 96-94

⚡87%

Jack Rafferty, an undefeated fighter with a 26-0-1 record and a 65% knockout ratio, is making his welterweight debut against the seasoned Ekow Essuman on May 9, 2026. Rafferty (30) is significantly younger than Essuman (37) and has maintained a higher activity rate in recent years. He has expressed feeling 'refreshed and rejuvenated' after a break, indicating readiness for this challenge. While Essuman brings formidable experience, a notable win over Josh Taylor, and exceptional durability, Rafferty's youth, punching power, and momentum from a strong run of TKO victories are expected to secure him a hard-fought decision victory in this competitive bout.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Ekow Essuman +6.5 (+6.5)

67%

Despite Jack Rafferty being the favorite, Ekow Essuman is a highly durable and experienced welterweight who rarely suffers wide losses on the scorecards. Essuman has only been stopped once in his 24-fight career, and that was in the 11th round against a top-tier opponent in Jack Catterall. Given Rafferty's move up in weight, a dominant performance resulting in a victory by more than six rounds on the judges' scorecards is unlikely, making Essuman +6.5 a strong spread pick for a competitive decision.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 8.5

87%

The 'Over 8.5 Rounds' pick is highly confident due to the proven durability of both fighters. Ekow Essuman is renowned for his 'engine' and has only been stopped once in his career, in the 11th round. Jack Rafferty, while possessing significant knockout power, is stepping up to welterweight, where his power may not translate as easily against a naturally bigger opponent. Both fighters typically go deep into their fights, with Essuman's professional bouts averaging 7.8 rounds and Rafferty's averaging 4.9 rounds, suggesting this 10-round contest is likely to go the distance or be stopped late.

⚠️ Moneyline: Ekow Essuman

Ekow Essuman presents slight value at these odds. While Rafferty is the favorite, Essuman's established presence at welterweight, combined with his notable win over Josh Taylor and Rafferty's unproven performance in the new division, suggests his true probability of winning is marginally higher than the implied odds.

✅ Total Rounds: Over 8.5 Rounds

Ekow Essuman's remarkable durability, having only been stopped once in his career (in the 11th round), and Jack Rafferty's first fight at welterweight suggest this bout will extend into the later rounds. With both fighters known for their resilience and conditioning, the probability of the fight going past 8.5 rounds is higher than the current implied odds.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money is likely split, with a majority on Rafferty's moneyline, but some shrewd bettors may be exploring value on Essuman with a generous points spread or on the fight going the distance, anticipating a competitive affair. Line movement: Initial lines established Jack Rafferty as a clear favorite, and while minor fluctuations may occur closer to fight night, the overall market has remained relatively stable, reflecting consistent confidence in Rafferty.