Jack Rafferty vs Ekow Essuman Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Jack Rafferty Win

Predicted: 97-93

+1.43 DraftKings

⚡87%

Jack Rafferty enters this bout as the undefeated younger fighter, leveraging his impressive 26-0-1 record with a 65% knockout rate. Rafferty is moving up to welterweight, a strategic decision he believes will unlock his best performances. Ekow Essuman, at 37, brings extensive experience (22-2 record) and a notable win over Josh Taylor but is coming off a challenging TKO loss to Jack Catterall in November 2025 where he sustained a significant nose injury. Rafferty's relentless pressure fighting style, combined with Essuman's recent durability issues and age difference, provides Rafferty with a distinct advantage. While Essuman's experience is valuable, Rafferty's youth, power, and momentum are expected to dictate the pace and outcome of this 10-round contest, likely leading to a comprehensive decision victory or a late stoppage for Rafferty.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Jack Rafferty -3.5 Rounds (-3.5)

87%

Given Jack Rafferty's undefeated record and aggressive style, he is expected to control a significant portion of the rounds. Essuman's recent TKO loss suggests he might struggle with Rafferty's consistent pressure over 10 rounds, leading to Rafferty winning a clear majority of the rounds on the scorecards. While a knockout is possible, a wide points victory for Rafferty makes covering a -3.5 round spread a confident pick.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 8.5

67%

Despite Jack Rafferty's high knockout percentage (65%), Ekow Essuman is a durable fighter who has gone the distance in many of his fights, averaging 7.8 rounds per professional bout. His recent TKO loss was in the 11th round of a 12-round fight, indicating significant resilience. While Rafferty will push the pace, Essuman's ability to absorb punishment and his experience suggest this fight will extend beyond the 8.5 round mark, likely going to a decision or a late stoppage.

✅ Moneyline: Jack Rafferty

Jack Rafferty is the clear favorite, and my model's probability of him winning (75%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from the best available odds (64.9%). This offers a strong 10.1% edge, indicating good value on Rafferty to win outright.

✅ Method of Victory: Jack Rafferty by KO/TKO

Rafferty boasts a 65% knockout ratio in his career. Given Essuman's recent 11th-round TKO loss to Jack Catterall, there's a strong probability of Rafferty securing a stoppage victory. My model estimates a 48.75% chance of a KO/TKO for Rafferty, significantly higher than the implied odds of 36.36%, presenting a valuable edge.

💰 Sharp Money

Appears to be coming in on Jack Rafferty, as his odds have slightly shortened since opening despite a perceived challenge in moving up a weight class. Line movement: Jack Rafferty opened around 2/5 (-250) and is currently at -230 on some books, suggesting a slight shortening of his odds. Ekow Essuman's odds have remained relatively stable around 7/4 (+180).