Charlie Sheehy vs Jaret Gonzalez Quiroz Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Charlie Sheehy Win

Predicted: 98-92

⚡87%

Charlie Sheehy enters this Lightweight bout with an undefeated record of 12-0 (7 KOs) and strong momentum, having recently secured a six-round stoppage victory in November 2025. His decorated amateur career, which included representing USA Boxing, provides a solid foundation for his professional success. Jaret Gonzalez Quiroz, while more experienced with a 19-2 (13 KOs) record, is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joe Cordina in July 2025. Sheehy's recent signing with Matchroom Boxing indicates a focused push in his career, and he's eager to make a statement. Although Quiroz has a higher KO percentage (68% vs 58%), Sheehy's superior recent form, unbeaten status, and amateur pedigree position him as the favorite to win a comfortable decision.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Charlie Sheehy -6.5 (-6.5)

78%

While boxing typically doesn't use traditional point spreads, a 'round spread' or 'points margin' can be inferred. Given Charlie Sheehy's undefeated record and clear favoritism, he is expected to dominate a significant majority of the rounds. Quiroz, despite his experience, is coming off a loss and may struggle to win more than a few rounds against the sharp and active Sheehy. Therefore, a pick of Sheehy -6.5 indicates a strong expectation of him winning by a wide margin on the judges' scorecards, securing at least 8 out of 10 rounds.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 8.5

70%

The fight is scheduled for 10 rounds. While Charlie Sheehy has a decent KO percentage (58%), Jaret Gonzalez Quiroz has only been stopped once in his 21 professional fights, indicating durability. Quiroz's experience suggests he can absorb punishment and extend the fight. It is plausible that Sheehy will win by decision, making the 'over 8.5 rounds' a reasonable pick.

✅ Method of Victory: Charlie Sheehy by Decision/Technical Decision

Charlie Sheehy is a strong favorite, and while he has 7 KOs in 12 fights, Quiroz has proven to be durable, with only one KO loss in 21 fights. This suggests a decision victory for Sheehy is highly probable, offering good value compared to the moneyline odds.

✅ Total Rounds: Over 9.5 Rounds

Given Quiroz's durability and Sheehy's measured approach, the fight going the full 10 rounds or at least past 9.5 rounds has a strong chance. The odds of 1.90 present a slight edge if the fight is expected to go deep.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money appears to be backing Sheehy, pushing his moneyline odds lower across various sportsbooks. Line movement: Initial lines established Sheehy as a clear favorite, and the odds have remained stable or slightly shifted further in his favor, indicating consistent belief in his victory.