Sunday, May 10, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 30d 6h 17m
Bilal Fawaz
vs
Ryan Kelly
AI Confidence: โก80%
Winner: Bilal Fawaz Win (โก80%)
Spread: Fawaz by Decision (+3) (โก75%)
Total: Over 10.5 (โก85%)
Bilal Fawaz vs Ryan Kelly Prediction
Bilal Fawaz is predicted to defeat Ryan Kelly by Unanimous Decision in a competitive Super Welterweight contest. Fawaz's superior championship form, strategic boxing, and proven ability to perform in later rounds are expected to overcome Kelly's aggression and power.
ATS PREDICTION
Bilal Fawaz Win
โก80%
Bilal Fawaz is currently in excellent form, holding British and Commonwealth titles, and has demonstrated the ability to win tough, longer fights against quality opposition. His strategic boxing and late-fight resilience will be crucial. While Ryan Kelly possesses knockout power and more professional experience, his recent record against top-tier fighters has been inconsistent. Fawaz's superior championship pedigree and ability to maintain a high work rate over 12 rounds will likely lead him to a clear decision victory.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Fawaz by Decision (+3)
75%
Fawaz has a history of winning by decision, especially in championship rounds, as seen in his recent title fights. Kelly's durability suggests he can go the distance, but Fawaz's consistent pressure and cleaner work rate will accumulate rounds. A spread of 3 rounds reflects Fawaz winning a significant majority of the rounds, likely 8-4 or 9-3 on the judges' scorecards.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 10.5
85%
Both fighters have shown durability in recent bouts, with Fawaz's last three fights averaging 10.7 rounds and Kelly's last two averaging 11 rounds. Kelly's respectable chin and Fawaz's tendency to win by decision rather than early stoppage suggest this fight will go deep into the championship rounds, if not the full distance.
๐ More Markets
๐ฅ Fight Outcome
Method of Victory
Points
Fawaz's knockout percentage is relatively low (27%), and he has secured his recent titles via decision. Kelly, despite his higher KO rate, has also gone the distance in many of his losses and draws against good competition. This indicates a fight where both men are likely to see the final bell.
Total Rounds
Over 10.5 Rounds
Considering both fighters' recent fight lengths and Kelly's resilience, it's highly probable this bout will extend beyond 10 and a half rounds. Fawaz's style is built on sustained pressure rather than early stoppages, making a late-round finish or decision the most likely outcome.
Fight to Go Distance
Yes
Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to go the distance. Fawaz's recent title fights have all gone to the judges, and Kelly has only been stopped once in his career. This points to a competitive bout that will likely be decided on the scorecards.
๐ฅ Round Betting
Round Betting
Fawaz in Rounds 10-12 or Decision
Fawaz has a history of coming on strong in the later rounds, as evidenced by his majority decision wins where he rallied after a slow start. While a specific round KO is less likely, his dominance in the championship rounds will solidify a decision victory.
Round Group
Rounds 10-12
Given Fawaz's late-fight surge and Kelly's toughness, the most decisive action or the culmination of Fawaz's dominance is expected in the final three rounds, leading to a decision.
๐ Fighter Props
Fighter Knockdown
No knockdown
While Kelly has a higher KO percentage, Fawaz has proven durable, only having one loss in his career. Neither fighter is known for consistently scoring knockdowns against high-level opposition, and both possess solid chins. It's a possibility, but not a strong certainty.
First Fighter to Score
Fighter1
Bilal Fawaz, as the more active and recently successful fighter, is expected to establish his presence early. While Kelly is an aggressor, Fawaz's strategic approach often allows him to control the pace and land effective shots from the outset, even if he builds momentum later.
Bilal Fawaz vs Ryan Kelly โ Key Stats (AI)
Co-op Live Arena, Manchester
Home Ground
9:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 10
Matchday kickoff
Boxing - Super Welterweight
Boxing
Betting Angles โ Bilal Fawaz vs Ryan Kelly
โ Bilal Fawaz to win by Decision: Bilal Fawaz by Decision
Given Fawaz's tendency to win by decision and Kelly's resilience, odds around 1.8 for a decision win for Fawaz offer good value, as the model estimates a higher probability for this outcome.
โ Fight to go the Distance: Yes
With both fighters demonstrating strong durability and Fawaz's decision-heavy record, the fight going the distance is a high-probability event. Odds of 1.5 present a favorable edge.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Early line movements, based on the May 2nd fight, showed Fawaz as a strong favorite, with his odds potentially shortening as fight day approached, indicating sharp money backing the champion. Line movement: Fawaz opened as a 1/4 (-400) favorite, with Kelly at 11/4 (+280), which has widened to 5/2 (+250), suggesting increased confidence in Fawaz.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Bilal Fawaz vs Ryan Kelly
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.97 (+597)
AI Confidence: 75%
$10 โ $69.68 | $25 โ $174.20 | $50 โ $348.39
Correlation: POSITIVE โ
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธRyan Kelly's higher knockout percentage (40%) poses a threat, especially if he can land a significant shot early.
- โ ๏ธFawaz's tendency for slow starts could allow Kelly to build an early lead on the scorecards.
- โ ๏ธThe fight going the distance increases the chance of a close, potentially controversial, decision.
Model Confidence
โก80%
Data quality: High. Comprehensive fighter records, recent fight details, and stylistic information were available for both boxers. Betting odds provided additional insight into market sentiment.
Limitations
- โขDiscrepancy in fight date and venue between user prompt and search results. Prediction is based on the user's provided details but fighter analysis uses widely reported information for the May 2nd bout.
- โขLack of specific weigh-in results or pre-fight interviews directly pertaining to a May 10th fight, due to the date discrepancy.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Bilal Fawaz vs Ryan Kelly โ FAQ
Bilal Fawaz recently won the British and Commonwealth Super-Welterweight titles in February 2026 and the English Super-Welterweight title in October 2025.