Alan Chaves vs Miguel Madueno Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Alan Chaves Win

⚡100%

Alan Chaves entered this fight as an undefeated prospect with significant momentum, boasting a high knockout percentage and having secured four consecutive stoppages in his recent outings. Miguel Madueno, while experienced, had a less favorable recent record, losing three of his last four bouts, including a prior KO loss. Chaves's southpaw stance, combined with his height and reach advantage, presented a difficult style matchup for the orthodox Madueno. The fight was anticipated to be a showcase for Chaves, who was making his Matchroom debut and fighting in the US for the first time, and he delivered with a powerful performance. His ability to land powerful body shots and a decisive left hook ultimately led to the early stoppage.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Chaves by KO/TKO (+7)

100%

Given Alan Chaves's impressive knockout ratio (85.7% pre-fight) and his recent streak of early stoppages, a win by KO/TKO was highly probable. Madueno's recent form, including a seventh-round KO loss in February 2025, indicated vulnerability to power punchers. Chaves's offensive prowess and Madueno's recent struggles suggested Chaves would finish the fight well before the championship rounds, resulting in a significant round advantage if the fight went to decision, but more likely an early stoppage. The actual outcome of a Round 3 KO confirms this assessment.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

87%

Alan Chaves's history of quick finishes, with his last four fights before this bout ending in stoppages and lasting a total of nine rounds, strongly suggested an 'under' bet on the total rounds. Madueno's recent losses, including a KO, also pointed towards a fight that might not go the distance. The stylistic matchup favored an aggressive approach from Chaves against a fighter who has shown susceptibility to power. The fight was scheduled for 10 rounds, and an under 8.5 rounds pick was a strong play, which was validated by the third-round KO.

✅ Alan Chaves to win by KO/TKO: Alan Chaves by KO/TKO

Given Chaves's dominant KO record and Madueno's recent struggles, including a stoppage loss, the odds for a Chaves KO/TKO win would likely be lower than the model's probability, indicating value. The actual result confirms this was the correct outcome.

✅ Under 6.5 Rounds: Under 6.5 Rounds

Chaves's tendency for early finishes and Madueno's recent form suggested the fight would end well before the later rounds. The actual Round 3 KO provides significant value on this market.

💰 Sharp Money

Likely on Alan Chaves, particularly for a KO/TKO victory or an early stoppage, given his impressive form and Madueno's recent vulnerabilities. The pre-fight odds of -900 for Chaves indicated significant backing. Line movement: The line likely moved further towards Chaves as the fight approached, reflecting confidence in his ability to dominate, especially after weigh-ins and any perceived physical advantages. The initial -900 odds already showed a strong lean.