Alan Abel Chaves vs Miguel Madueno Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Alan Abel Chaves Win

Predicted: Chaves by TKO in Round 7

⚡87%

Alan Abel Chaves enters this bout undefeated with an impressive 21-0 record, boasting 18 KOs, reflecting an 85.7% knockout rate. He has demonstrated significant power and finished four of his last seven opponents inside the distance, including a first-round TKO in October 2025. Chaves is highly ranked in the lightweight division (WBO #2, IBF #6, WBC #13), indicating his elite potential. Miguel Madueno, while experienced with a 31-4 record and 28 KOs, is on a two-fight losing streak and has dropped three of his last four bouts. His most recent loss was a 7th-round KO to Oscar Duarte in February 2025, suggesting vulnerability to power punchers. Chaves' momentum, youth, and destructive power are expected to overwhelm Madueno's recent form and defensive lapses, leading to a stoppage victory.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Alan Abel Chaves -350 (hypothetical) (-350)

85%

Given Alan Abel Chaves' undefeated record, high knockout ratio, and recent dominant performances against a fighter who has recently been stopped, he is a clear favorite. The moneyline equivalent of a spread pick in boxing would strongly lean towards Chaves winning outright. This pick reflects his superior form and the clear trajectory difference between the two fighters.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 8.5

80%

Both fighters possess significant knockout power, particularly Chaves, who has an 85.7% KO rate. Madueno has also been stopped in the 7th round in his last fight. This suggests the fight is unlikely to go the full 10 rounds, making an 'under' on total rounds a strong consideration.

⚠️ Method of Victory: Alan Abel Chaves by KO/TKO/DQ

Chaves has 18 KOs in 21 wins, demonstrating significant finishing ability. Madueno was stopped in his last fight, indicating he is susceptible to knockouts. The model projects a higher probability of a Chaves stoppage than implied by these hypothetical odds, presenting a value opportunity.

⚠️ Fight to go the Distance: No

With both fighters having high KO ratios (Chaves 85.7%, Madueno 82.35%) and Madueno recently being stopped, a decision outcome seems less probable. The hypothetical odds might underestimate the likelihood of a stoppage by either fighter, though Chaves is the more likely finisher here.

💰 Sharp Money

Expected to be on Alan Abel Chaves, particularly for a stoppage victory, given his impressive recent form. Line movement: If current trends hold, Chaves' odds are likely to shorten closer to fight night as more public and sharp money comes in on him.