🐎Horse Racing

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Roscommon (IRE) · 20:23 (UK local)

Monday, 11 May 2026

1m 4f 46y

Distance

Turf

Surface

Good

Going

Runners

Prize: €13,500 added

AI Top 3 Picks

①P1 pick28%

Harana (IRE)

J: Colin Keane · T: D K Weld

Represents a formidable trainer-jockey combination in D K Weld and Colin Keane, who are adept at preparing maidens. Expected to be well-schooled and ready to perform strongly on debut or show signific…

②P2 pick20%

Duvessa (IRE)

J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: J P O'Brien

From a leading stable with a top jockey aboard, suggesting a horse with potential. J P O'Brien's runners often improve with experience or are well-prepared for their initial outings.

③P3 pick15%

Marazion (IRE)

J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J Harrington

Hails from a respected yard known for producing quality fillies, with Shane Foley a consistent performer. Likely to be competitive in this maiden contest.

Model confidence: 25% · capped at 50% for racing's structural variance

Full Racecard (15 runners)

#	Draw	Horse	Age	Wgt	Form	OR	Last	Jockey	Trainer	HG	PR
1	6	Al Rojo Vivo (IRE)	4	9-4	008/080-	40	278d	Robert Whearty	Mrs M Whelehan	—	0.0
3	2	②Duvessa (IRE)	4	9-4	8-	—	226d	Dylan Browne McMonagle	J P O'Brien	—	5.0
4	1	Enchanted Lady	4	9-4	—	—	16d	Luke McAteer	A Oliver	—	0.5
5	9	Guy's Girl (IRE)	4	9-4	6560-5	70	101d	Billy Lee	W McCreery	—	2.0
6	5	①Harana (IRE)	4	9-4	2-	—	390d	Colin Keane	D K Weld	p	2.5
7	3	Hope N Pray (IRE)	4	9-4	0-	—	280d	Ronan Whelan	J P Fahey	—	1.5
8	7	③Marazion (IRE)	4	9-4	5/33437-	80	201d	Shane Foley	Mrs J Harrington	—	2.0
9	10	Massarat (FR)	4	9-4	68	—	32d	Andrew Slattery	J Halley	—	1.0
10	12	Poet's Willow (IRE)	4	9-4	000	—	16d	Mel Sheridan	F Birrane	t	0.0
11	13	Tasmanian Girl (IRE)	6	9-4	9809/06-	34	257d	Jessica O'Gorman	Aengus King	pt	0.0
12	11	Tears I Nevercried (IRE)	4	9-4	—	—	32d	Leigh Roche	Eoghan O'Neill	—	1.5
13	4	Think About It (IRE)	4	9-4	049-805	57	8d	Patrick McGettigan	T P McGettigan	—	0.0
2	8	Carmel's Phoenix (IRE)	4	9-4	42-5	86	37d	Gary Carroll	M Fahey	h	3.5
0	7	Sissi (IRE)	4	9-4	—	—	—	Dylan Browne McMonagle	J P O'Brien	—	—
0	2	Chemdawg (IRE)	5	9-4	—	—	—	Ronan Whelan	O McKiernan	—	—

Wgt = weight (st-lb) · OR = official rating · PR = Sky Sports power rating · HG = headgear (b/v/cp/t/h/p) · Last = days since last run

Key Race Factors

•Trainer and Jockey Form/Reputation: Crucial in maiden races where form can be limited or non-existent.
•Pedigree and Breeding: Indicates potential suitability for the distance and ground, especially for unraced horses.
•Market Support (if available): Often a strong indicator for well-regarded newcomers.
•Inherent unpredictability of maiden races with many unexposed runners.
•Going: The unknown going condition adds a significant layer of uncertainty to the race outcome.

Risk Assessment

Variance levelhigh

•The race is a maiden, inherently high-variance with many unproven runners.
•The going is yet to be published, which is a critical factor for turf races and cannot be incorporated into this analysis.
•Lack of detailed form analysis provided for individual runners, necessitating reliance on general stable/jockey strength.
•Large field size (13 runners) increases the complexity and potential for unexpected outcomes.

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How These Predictions Work

These predictions are AI-generated using current racecard data and search-grounded analysis. Horse racing is structurally high-variance — even the most-favoured horse wins only ~30–35% of races. Use AI predictions as one input among many, alongside your own form study and trusted tipsters. Bet responsibly.