🐎Horse RacingClass 2

Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Newmarket · 15:07 (UK local)

Friday, 15 May 2026

Distance

Turf

Surface

TBC

Going

Runners

Prize: £30,000 added

AI Top 3 Picks

①P1 pick38%

O'gorman

J: Oisin Murphy · T: George Scott

O'gorman enters this race on the back of a win, showing clear progression from his debut. The booking of top jockey Oisin Murphy, combined with a respectable trainer strike rate and a highly favorable…

②P2 pick32%

Mr Macartney

J: Jonny Peate · T: Oli Rix

Also a last-time-out winner, Mr Macartney has shown good progression and holds a favorable draw in 13. While jockey and trainer form are a slight concern, the horse's own winning form is compelling.

③P3 pick25%

Duidin (IRE)

J: L Morris · T: J Butler

Duidin showed promise with a third-place finish on debut and benefits from a favorable draw in 10. Despite cold connections, the initial run suggests ability to compete for a place.

Model confidence: 38% · capped at 50% for racing's structural variance

Full Racecard (17 runners)

#	Draw	Horse	Age	Wgt	Form	OR	Last	Jockey	Trainer	HG	PR
1	13	②Mr Macartney	2	9-10	41	—	20d	Jonny Peate	Oli Rix	—	0.0
2	11	①O'gorman	2	9-10	21	—	15d	Oisin Murphy	George Scott	—	0.0
3	8	Agitator	2	9-4	—	—	—	Edward Greatrex	Oliver Cole	—	0.0
4	3	Ballisty (IRE)	2	9-4	3	—	14d	Dylan Hogan	Jack Jones	—	0.0
5	10	③Duidin (IRE)	2	9-4	3	—	15d	L Morris	J Butler	—	0.0
6	12	Fly Test (IRE)	2	9-4	—	—	—	Ross Coakley	M L W Bell	—	0.0
7	9	Mirzimaan (IRE)	2	9-4	—	—	—	Jack Callan	G Boughey	—	0.0
8	1	Regal Chita (IRE)	2	9-4	—	—	—	David Probert	James Owen	—	0.0
9	7	Turnstile	2	9-4	43	—	20d	Sean Kirrane	T D Easterby	—	0.0
10	4	Zohar (IRE)	2	9-4	—	—	—	Harry Davies	C Fellowes	—	0.0
11	6	Celtic Charioteer	2	9-1	—	—	—	Saffie Osborne	J Ferguson	—	0.0
12	14	Temple Court (IRE)	2	9-1	—	—	—	Charles Bishop	Eve Johnson Houghton	—	0.0
13	5	Holi Scarlett (IRE)	2	8-10	7	—	12d	Marco Ghiani	S C Williams	—	0.0
14	2	Last Dandelion	2	8-10	—	—	15d	Grace McEntee	S C Williams	—	0.0
0	8	Logi Bear (IRE)	2	9-7	—	—	—	J P Spencer	R Hannon	—	—
0	9	Camera Shy (IRE)	2	9-7	—	—	—	K Stott	M L W Bell	—	—
0	9	Flag Of St George (IRE)	2	9-5	—	—	—	Robert Tart	Jane Chapple-Hyam	—	—

Wgt = weight (st-lb) · OR = official rating · PR = Sky Sports power rating · HG = headgear (b/v/cp/t/h/p) · Last = days since last run

Key Race Factors

•Recent form and progression of experienced runners, particularly last-time-out winners.
•Current strike rates of trainers and jockeys, favoring those in form.
•Significant draw bias on Newmarket's Rowley Mile 6f, favoring high draws in large fields.
•High number of debutants introducing considerable uncertainty into the race outcome.
•Unconfirmed going conditions add another layer of variability to the analysis.

Risk Assessment

Variance levelhigh

•Large field size (17 runners) inherently increases race variance.
•Presence of numerous debutants makes form assessment challenging and introduces unknowns.
•Official going is unconfirmed, which can significantly alter race dynamics and horse performance.
•Novice Stakes races often feature unexposed horses capable of rapid, unpredictable improvement.

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How These Predictions Work

These predictions are AI-generated using current racecard data and search-grounded analysis. Horse racing is structurally high-variance — even the most-favoured horse wins only ~30–35% of races. Use AI predictions as one input among many, alongside your own form study and trusted tipsters. Bet responsibly.