🐎Horse Racing

Velo Coffee Roasters Handicap (0-60)

Killarney (IRE) · 18:40 (UK local)

Tuesday, 12 May 2026

1m 31y

Distance

Turf

Surface

TBC

Going

Runners

Prize: €9,999 added

AI Top 3 Picks

①P1 pick38%

Toy Soldier (IRE)

J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Maurice Ahern

Despite poor recent form figures, the combination of trainer Maurice Ahern (50% win rate) and jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle (23-26% win rate) is exceptionally strong. This suggests the horse is expect…

②P2 pick32%

Tero D'rosa (IRE)

J: Shane Foley · T: R O'Sullivan

A winner just four days ago, Tero D'rosa is in excellent current form and fitness. The quick turnaround suggests the horse is thriving and capable of another strong performance at this level.

③P3 pick25%

Can I Kiss You (IRE)

J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J M Barrett

Finished second just seven days ago, demonstrating good current form and capability in competitive handicaps. The quick return to racing indicates fitness and well-being.

Model confidence: 35% · capped at 50% for racing's structural variance

Full Racecard (21 runners)

#	Draw	Horse	Age	Wgt	Form	OR	Last	Jockey	Trainer	HG	PR
1	14	②Tero D'rosa (IRE)	4	10-4	07032-1	55	4d	Shane Foley	R O'Sullivan	—	0.0
2	3	Friars Gate (IRE)	4	10-1	00-9	59	17d	Adam Browne-Souza	A Leahy	—	0.0
3	5	Jasmine Affanalis (IRE)	4	10-1	521-075	59	18d	Luke McAteer	D Marnane	—	0.0
4	13	Chipsrdown (IRE)	4	10-0	003-5	58	27d	Andrew Slattery	A Slattery	—	0.0
5	10	Peig Sayers (IRE)	5	9-13	4000-0	57	18d	Billy Lee	Miss H McLoughlin	—	0.0
6	4	Hot To Foxtrot (IRE)	6	9-11	3900-54	55	32d	Ronan Whelan	J Feane	p	0.0
7	11	①Toy Soldier (IRE)	4	9-9	0000-00	53	58d	Dylan Browne McMonagle	Maurice Ahern	b	0.0
8	8	③Can I Kiss You (IRE)	4	9-8	70408-2	52	7d	Seamie Heffernan	J M Barrett	—	0.0
9	17	Mogwli (IRE)	9	9-8	150-000	52	27d	Megan Telford-Kelly	W McCreery	b	0.0
10	6	Secret Magician (IRE)	7	9-8	00-0080	52	20d	Paddy Harnett	M Hassett	p	0.0
11	9	Saith Seren	5	9-4	0/894-55	48	34d	Gavin Ryan	A Lee	—	0.0
12	1	Nibras Rainbow (IRE)	6	9-2	19-9360	46	18d	Leigh Roche	P W Flynn	b	0.0
13	16	Lorr's Girl (IRE)	5	9-0	249408-	44	146d	J M Sheridan	R Sweeney	—	0.0
14	15	Swiss Army Officer (IRE)	11	8-10	00002-0	40	18d	Julian Pietropaolo	Kevin Coleman	—	0.0
15	18	Tynamite (IRE)	12	8-10	230787-	40	224d	Rebecca Parsons	D Marnane	—	0.0
16	12	Hale Bopp (IRE)	8	8-10	540066	40	7d	Reserve 1	R Donohoe	—	0.0
17	2	Ethelwulf	4	9-7	870600	51	4d	Reserve 2	D Hogan	b	0.0
18	7	Morning Approach (IRE)	8	9-11	8000-00	55	95d	Reserve 3	W McCreery	—	0.0
0	10	Harry The Rogue (IRE)	4	9-10	—	—	—	Sam Coen	A Slattery	—	—
0	12	Passionate (IRE)	4	10-0	—	—	—	Andrew Slattery	A Slattery	—	—
0	15	Rock Etoile (IRE)	5	10-0	—	—	—	C Horgan	A Slattery	—	—

Wgt = weight (st-lb) · OR = official rating · PR = Sky Sports power rating · HG = headgear (b/v/cp/t/h/p) · Last = days since last run

Key Race Factors

•Large field (21 runners) increases race variance and unpredictability.
•Absence of 'Going' information adds significant uncertainty to turf performance predictions.
•Top pick (Toy Soldier) relies heavily on the red-hot form of trainer Maurice Ahern and jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle, despite the horse's poor recent form.
•Tero D'rosa enters the race on a quick turnaround after a recent win, indicating peak fitness and confidence.
•Competitive nature of a 0-60 handicap, often featuring inconsistent performers.

Risk Assessment

Variance levelhigh

•Large field size (21 runners) inherently increases unpredictability and the chance of interference.
•Crucial 'Going' information is unavailable, making it difficult to assess how horses will handle the track conditions.
•The top pick (Toy Soldier) has poor recent form, making its success highly dependent on the connections' current hot streak rather than proven ability.
•Low-grade handicaps (0-60) are often highly competitive with many horses capable on their day, leading to high variance.

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How These Predictions Work

These predictions are AI-generated using current racecard data and search-grounded analysis. Horse racing is structurally high-variance — even the most-favoured horse wins only ~30–35% of races. Use AI predictions as one input among many, alongside your own form study and trusted tipsters. Bet responsibly.