🐎Horse Racing

Thomastown Maiden

Gowran Park (IRE) · 17:37 (UK local)

Tuesday, 5 May 2026

Distance

Turf

Surface

TBC

Going

Runners

Prize: €13,000 added

AI Top 3 Picks

①P1 pick38%

First Wave (FR)

J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien

From the formidable A.P. O'Brien stable, First Wave is expected to be well-prepared for this maiden. The combination with Wayne Lordan suggests a strong intent, and O'Brien's runners often show signif…

②P2 pick32%

Satoyama (GER)

J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: J P O'Brien

J.P. O'Brien is a master with young horses, and Satoyama has the benefit of Dylan Browne McMonagle in the saddle, a jockey in excellent form. This horse should be competitive and handle the stiff fini…

③P3 pick25%

Kalir (IRE)

J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld

D.K. Weld's runners are always respected in maidens, often improving with each run. With Chris Hayes aboard, Kalir is likely to be well-placed to challenge for a spot.

Model confidence: 35% · capped at 50% for racing's structural variance

Full Racecard (19 runners)

#	Draw	Horse	Age	Wgt	Form	OR	Last	Jockey	Trainer	HG	PR
1	4	Chico Chico (IRE)	4	10-7	000-	—	252d	Robbie Colgan	D Kinsella	—	0.0
2	10	Faithful Follower (IRE)	7	10-7	/80-0	—	24d	Danny Mullins	P Hennessy	—	0.0
3	1	Western Bandit (IRE)	4	10-7	05	—	10d	Seamie Heffernan	A Mullins	t	0.0
4	2	Captain Con (IRE)	3	9-8	0-0	—	36d	Ronan Whelan	N Meade	—	0.0
5	3	Casamorati (IRE)	3	9-8	68	—	10d	J M Sheridan	J P O'Brien	—	0.0
6	8	Dun Aonghasa (IRE)	3	9-8	5	—	34d	Gary Carroll	N Meade	—	0.0
7	11	Hippology	3	9-8	5-0	—	36d	Declan McDonogh	J P O'Brien	—	0.0
8	9	③Kalir (IRE)	3	9-8	34-3	78	25d	Chris Hayes	D K Weld	p	0.0
9	14	Leeward (IRE)	3	9-8	97	—	11d	N G McCullagh	J P Murtagh	—	0.0
10	12	Loch Gamhna (IRE)	3	9-8	03-78	81	11d	Paddy Harnett	M Hassett	—	0.0
11	5	Matada (IRE)	3	9-8	—	—	36d	Robert Whearty	G P Cromwell	—	0.0
12	6	Rolltight (IRE)	3	9-8	8-	—	305d	Ben Coen	J P Murtagh	—	0.0
13	13	Saliba (IRE)	3	9-8	—	—	—	Shane Foley	Mrs J Harrington	—	0.0
14	7	②Satoyama (GER)	3	9-8	5	—	27d	Dylan Browne McMonagle	J P O'Brien	—	0.0
15	16	Stellar View (IRE)	3	9-8	5-5	—	26d	Billy Lee	H De Bromhead	—	0.0
16	15	Will You Stop (IRE)	3	9-8	—	—	—	Andrew Slattery	A Slattery	—	0.0
0	1	①First Wave (FR)	3	9-8	—	—	—	Wayne Lordan	A P O'Brien	—	—
0	2	Chicago Fireball (IRE)	3	9-8	—	—	—	Ben Coen	J P Murtagh	—	—
0	15	Save Your Love (IRE)	3	9-8	—	—	—	Ben Coen	J P Murtagh	—	—

Wgt = weight (st-lb) · OR = official rating · PR = Sky Sports power rating · HG = headgear (b/v/cp/t/h/p) · Last = days since last run

Key Race Factors

•Gowran Park is a right-handed, galloping track with a stiff uphill finish.
•The course demands stamina, especially over the final three furlongs.
•A significant pace bias exists, favoring front-runners or prominently ridden horses.
•The going is yet to be published, introducing an element of uncertainty.

Risk Assessment

Variance levelhigh

•Maiden race with many unexposed runners, leading to inherent unpredictability.
•The unknown going conditions could significantly impact performance.
•Large field of 16 declared runners increases the chance of traffic and bad luck.

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How These Predictions Work

These predictions are AI-generated using current racecard data and search-grounded analysis. Horse racing is structurally high-variance — even the most-favoured horse wins only ~30–35% of races. Use AI predictions as one input among many, alongside your own form study and trusted tipsters. Bet responsibly.